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Hey Jeff! I'm a minimalist & find that I'm happier with less stuff & when I give/receive experiences rather than items. Do you find consumer happiness reflects this shift towards minimalism since that is a (small, but seemingly growing) trend, especially among Millennials? | Great question! There is some relatively new research looking at happiness from experiences vs. material possessions. Most of it shows that happiness from equally valued (e.g. price) experiences is higher than for possessions. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, all that work tends to ignore long run happiness with highly prized possessions. For instance, if you have a sentimentally valued object, happiness that stems from that object lasts for a long time. What most possessions don't do is provide long lasting happiness. You buy a new shiny toy and it DOES make you happy...but that happiness goes away quickly. My collaborators and I have termed this idea "Hedonic Decline." |
So as for minimalism, there is not evidence that I know of that shows that less possessions make you happier. There's plenty showing that more possessions don't make you happier, but that's not the same thing. | |
One more layer of complexity: there are two routes to happiness: hedonic and eudaimonic. The former is what we usually think of when we think of happiness: how much joy does XYZ bring me. The latter, however, is closer to self-actualization. It's the happiness the comes from a accomplishing something....even if there was pain involved in getting there. I wonder if minimalism can increase eudaimonic happiness. | |
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That's interesting. Thank you for responding. In the minimalism community, self-actualization is reflected in endeavors such as achieving certain goals (like, paying off debt) that usually involves some amount of self-discipline &/or self-sacrifice. | I'd say that the vast majority of research in happiness excludes eudaimonic happiness, largely because it's so hard to measure. My personal, non-data supported, take is that eudaimonic happiness is far more important than hedonic happiness. The latter is fleeting, whereas the former can be life changing. |
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Beautifully said. | Thank you. |
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How does depression affect eudaimonic happiness compared to hedonic happiness? | Great question and I don't know the answer. Social Psychology typical studies what we very poorly term "normal" psychology, which excludes clinical conditions like depression. Sorry! |
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What’s your take on “pay to play” - as in, some “hedonic” purchases at are required to signal you’re in the game, making progress on eudaimonic happiness. When you get older and into your career, I’d venture many people have already figured out that hedonic happiness doesn’t do squat long-term, but there’s a balance in terms of how much hedonic happiness to have to acquire for the ultimate long-term eudaimonic happiness. Example: in sales, which I’m in tech analytics sales, companies want to spend for solutions to business problems, but they also want to see, visually, that the person they’re paying is a good representative for them. High cost equals a person that can represent that taste. Nice. Tailored suits, a nice watch and latest tech gadgets. There’s a pay to play aspect that signals to the world who I am, and that in turn actually allows me to get what I want- student loans paid off and early retirement.. | I don't think there's any conflict here. If you will find some form of life satisfaction by succeeding in your career, there's no harm in also purchasing items that help you reach that goal. Those items can, in and of themselves, make you happy...nothing wrong with that. More to the point, hedonic and eudaimonic happiness don't have to be in opposition. You can have both! |
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I really like this response. While i can jive with basic premise of experiences over possessions...i’m find it used a lot by people who actually just want to shirk obligation. I run HHiring and there is a persistent trend of people not wanting to act like their job is important..just because it’s easier to justify bailing on work/shifts to go do things when you can say you’re doing it for the experience, not focusing on the money you make at a job. I’m trying to figure out the best way to respond to people who think i’m some big bad money grubbing boss for wanting people to do their jobs. Meanwhile, in my personal life...i feel like i’m getting a lot of push back socially from people who think i should only work where i can just make my own schedule and dip put for an “experience” whenever. At the end of the say, it feels like people will just wax philosophic reasons for demanding leisure with all the material perks of having jobs and working. | Great point. This relates to intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation. The former is the desire to do something because it's inherently interesting/rewarding. The latter is doing something for compensation. This is more in the realm of organizational behavior, and you'll have to wait for my wife who is also a professor, but of organizational behavior and theory, to do an AMA for more on that :) |
Hello, thanks for doing this. Are you familiar with "loot boxes" in video games? I feel like the topics of a lot of your papers would fit right into why consumers/businesses use loot boxes. How does a loot box mechanic differ from gambling and should it be treated the same? (Regulation, age restriction, etc) If they are the same, how do you feel about video games including a loot box mechanic? Sticking with gambling parallels, what are your thoughts on video game companies targeting "whales" given that gamers can be any age nowadays? | I'm not a gamer myself (though I do love TTPRGs and run a D&D 5e campaign), but I'm pretty familiar with loot boxes. Mobile games and social media platforms in general have become very good at continuous reinforcement. It can be the allure of getting a new outfit in a loot box or just an upvote on Reddit...the point is that we are wired to love small rewards, even if those rewards are meaningless. Casinos have mastered this art and loot boxes are an capitalizing of the same basic psychological mechanisms: need for positive reinforcements. So are loot boxes the same as gambling? Probably not the SAME, but damn close. As for regulation, I am strongly in favor of making gambling of all forms only accessible to adults and even then providing access to counseling for those who suffer from gambling addiction. |
I have a lot less sympathy towards wealthy adults who choose to gamble as a form of entertainment. The problem is that it's not always obvious who's a whale and who's just pretending to be one for the attention. The latter is highly susceptible to financial ruin and I'd want them protected just the same as they are with standard gambling. | |
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Do you find the researcher in you observing and asking questions about the players' decision making processes in your D&D campaign? My old DM minored in psychology, and I often felt like a rat in his experiments. I enjoyed it, though. It kind of added an extra facet to the game. | More than my research, teaching has made a huge difference in being a DM. When I lecture, I am forced to be quick on my feet to understand student questions, reply accordingly, and make sure that I'm moving the lecture along. That is the same with DMing. I need to be able to understand the motives of my players, respond appropriately with NPCs, and keep the story going. |
I'm sure that my knowledge of psychology helps, but I wouldn't think it influences the way I DM (or play) that much. | |
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Studying business Psychology in Switzerland and leading the yawning portal atm, seems like I need to start teaching :p | Ha! Check out this thread: https://www.reddit.com/WaterdeepDragonHeist/comments/fcc89a/the_yawning_portal_a_drinking_song_and_boss_music/ |
I used that for my game and it was great. | |
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Could I join your 5e campaign? | Ha! Sorry, no. It's just close friends and we're months into it. I'm running Waterdeep, if you're curious. |
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I'm applying to Carnegie's MBA for what it's worth! If I'm accepted, may I join then? ;-) | How about you get in and then we discuss! |
Hi Jeff! What is your favorite heuristic or logical fallacy when it comes to decision making? Can you teach us about one that people might not know about? | Easy: Diversification Bias. That's where I started my career 15 years ago. I didn't discover this bias, but have built on it. Anyway, it's the idea that people choose more variety than they should. For example, if you are going to pick some snacks for the next few days, you might pick: chips, pretzels and an apple. Those are fine, but really chips are your favorite and you picked the other two because you thought you'd get tired of chips every day. Well, turns out you'd be wrong. A day is enough to reset satiation/hedonic-decline in most cases, so you'd be better off always picking your favorite option! Doing otherwise means eating snacks that are less preferred. |
A new one that my doctoral student, Julian Givi, and I recently published: The Future Is Now (FIN) Heuristic. It's the idea that people believe that future events will be like present events, even when evidence points to the contrary. An example: if it's sunny today, you're more likely to think it'll be sunny tomorrow, even if the forecast clearly predict rain. What happens is you treat information about the present as having evidentiary value for future events, even when that's just not true. | |
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I really like that you give your student credit. | PhD students do all the hard work. Professors just bask in the glory :) |
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I think diversification bias is how I ended up with 5 shades of blue nail polish that are virtually undistinguishable from each other! Interesting to consider. | Ha! Just might be... |
Tell me about your paper "Sentimental value and gift giving: Givers’ fears of getting it wrong prevents them from getting it right". From what I read of the abstract, it seems that gift-givers undervalue sentimental value, seeing it as riskier. Why is that, and how can we give better gifts? | Sure, this is a paper with my former doctoral student, Julian Givi. Basically, people are risk averse in gift giving when they shouldn't be. If I know you like coffee and I have a choice to give you some nice coffee beans or a framed photo of the two of us (presumably since we're friends), I give the former b/c it's a sure bet. But as the recipient, overwhelmingly, people prefer the latter. So givers should take the risk and give the sentimentally valuable gift over one that is more a sure bet. |
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Interesting. When giving presents, givers focus too much on the recipient's known wants, which gets in the way of giving a meaningful present. Thank you! I'll be sure to keep that in-mind next Christmas. | That's exactly it. |
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I sometimes hesitate at this. I don’t want to come off as the selfie culture of all about me in pictures! But relatives do love getting pics of the kids for gifts. Still, how often is this perceived as a form of narcissism by the gift receiver? Edit: pictures of my kids not just me! | One trick we do: every Christmas holiday we print full size calendars with our kids pictures on them. That's our holiday gift to all the grandparents. They LOVE it. |
We also send small photo books to the grandparents throughout the year of some of the best pictures we take. | |
We have yet to send too many, but that's specific to our family. | |
The best advice I always have for something like this is: just ask! People are often worried about asking gift recipients about their preferences, but our research shows that a) recipients don't care about being asked and b) you can give better gifts that way. | |
Hi Jeff ! I have a question regarding involvement in a purchase, is there an increasing trend to become highly involved in the purchase of even low value object ? I find myself doing this during the pandemic doing comparison searches for a bulb which costs 10 dollars. Is this an exception ? Or is there some underlying psychological reason isolated to me ? | Absolutely. Two reasons this could be happening. 1) With more free time, the threshold for what merits deep research drops a lot. 2) Many people are facing financial hardships, and so making sure every dollar is well spent becomes really important. |
Hi Jeff, Thank you for the great AMA. Where do you see the future of insights departments in consumer companies? Most companies looks like giving up on ethnographic and in person research and focus on data analytics. I speculate management is under great pressure and in the meantime aspire to Google, Amazon etc. What is your take of insights departments future in large companies? | Thank you! Exploratory research like ethnographies, interviews, and focus groups is really useful for brainstorming. But they are a poor substitute for quantitative data. Now, that doesn't mean "big data"...just data that has larger samples and is better representative of populations. Surveys are still amazing. When we want to forecast an election, we don't use big data, we conduct a political poll. They work. |
But yes, right now, AI and machine learning are the hot new ideas on the block and everyone wants in on them. There is plenty of amazing applications of AI/ML, but what they can't do is tell you "why". As in, why did someone choose this option over that one? Or why are people motivated by this goal or that goal? Those types of answers allow you to apply knowledge in completely novel contexts. AI/ML needs to be trained on a specific type of data for a specific type of task. It is AMAZING at that. But as soon as you introduce a new context or new set of experiences, it fails. That's where good old fashioned surveys and behavioral experiments come in. | |
If a program was built to help us make better decisions, do you think we would use it? Do you think we can listen to a program’s advice better than we do from experts? | We already do. Weather forecasts tell us how to dress. Facebook tells us what to think. Tinder tells us who to date. Etc... etc... |
A program that EXPLICITLY tells you what to do won't work too well. People like to feel like they have free will. They don't, though. We are greatly influenced by our environment (not just technology) whether we know it or not. As one example: I can guess your weight reasonably well just by knowing your zip code (please don't make me actually do this as I'm not in the business of public shaming!). If we had true free will and agency, that should be impossible. Instead, we are the products of our environment. | |
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60641 | Chicago? I believe Illinois has 30-35% obesity (I'm doing this quickly and not looking at your zip specifically), so pretty high weight. |
Hi Jeff! Since I'm a 14 yrs old and knew nothing about what you study, I have very limited questions I can ask. But as I have observed, people are often sheepish and will consume as the trend goes. What is the most unexpected trend, worldwide? P.S. will defo check out your channel | I don't expect most people to know my work (I like to think my ego isn't THAT big!), so no worries! |
You're right. Trends will drive a lot of human behavior. We are social creatures and follow what others do much more than we care to admit. As for the most unexpected trend, that's really hard to say. Maybe this is too broad, but I'm surprised by how short people's attention span is when it comes to current events. News cycles used to last for weeks, now they last for hours. I suppose I know that people don't have long attention spans, but I'm still surprised. | |
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Any underlying reasoning for this? | For the short attention spans? We can invoke evolutionary psychology, which I'm not a big fan of, and it would suggest something like a tensions between exploring and cultivating. So it would argue that our ancestors needed to have some reason to leave their immediate tribe to find new resources. So perhaps our attention spans are short b/c of this and the current environment exaggerates that behavior. |
Have you done(or can you point to) any research relating to the decision making/not making around getting rid of possessions? I have a relative who keeps anything that has a perceived value as in could be sold on ebay/garage sale which they never sell. They are otherwise rational, clean, don't over consume..def not hoarder territory.. but I struggle to convince them that the old digital camera that's been sitting for 3 years could just be disposed of. | Hoarding is definitely a thing. There isn't much in the study of item disposition in the empirical world of research (lots of interesting qualitative work that I'm less familiar with). The big exception to this is the Endowment Effect. The short version is that you value items you own more than if you don't own it. So a mug sitting on a store shelf is worth, say $10 to you, but as soon as you own it is worth, say, $20 to you. Nothing changed except your ownership of it. That explains some of hoarding behavior, but not all of it. |
For a qualitative research paper on the topic, see here: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/mcb/216/2010/00000013/00000001/art00001 | |
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I suppose I have the Endowment Effect. Everytime I find something valuable i dont have the will to let it go. Even though i can sell it and re buy it later, or buy something similar haha. It's like I want to take the most of it and use it til it brakes, go missing, or whatever. | The endowment effect isn't infinite. As in, it's not that you won't be willing to sell your items for ANY price, it's just that your willingness to sell is higher than your willingness to buy. |
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Hey Professor, appreciate the AMA. A couple of questions: 1) Just from my own thoughts banging around in my head and observations I've made during the pandemic, do you see the pause our society went through and the economic downturn effecting the psychology behind materialism? It seems the American "push for more no matter what" mind state took a eating and I think I'm seeing some consequences of that. | 1) It's possible, but my pretty strong prediction is that within 1-2 years of the pandemic ending, we will be back to where we were beforehand in terms of materialism and general behavior. Extreme events like a pandemic seem like they are life changers. For some, that's true (e.g. someone loses a loved one), but for most it's not. We are inherently myopic and think that the thing in front of our noses is the only thing that exists. |
2) I'm a current medical student and we get inundated with so many studies that it's overwhelming. Trying to practice evidence based medicine is really hard in an atmosphere that prioritizes publishing with little regard to quality. Do you ha e ways of navigating that I could apply to my day to day? Thanks again. | 2) I can't speak to medical research, but that problem exists in all academic fields. The best thing to do is to let science happen. There will always be flashy new findings, but the ones that really matter will get replicated over and over again...and will get built on. The BS ones tend to just die out. That's not a full proof approach to vetting research, but it's better than just assuming everything you see published is true and/or important. |
I am a former CMU student. How do you feel about CMU's decision to appoint Richard Grenell as a senior fellow? And how can we do something to fight against it because it seems they are not listening the current student body? Recently, the fence was vandalized against BLM (they wrote "all lives matter" over the previously written "black lives matter"). How are you working to build a more inclusive community at CMU and to fight for those who need it? How can former students help? | I signed the petition to revoke his appointment and stand by that completely. I do understand why the university is upholding it, but I am embarrassed to have him associated with CMU. |
As for the fence, the CMU Provost sent a really great letter immediately after it all happened condemning the vandalism and supporting BLM. Personally, I try VERY hard to do things like call on students of all races and genders and not let white men (of which I am one, btw) dominate conversations. I try to make sure that examples I use to highlight ideas include more than just typically white and/or male oriented products. I have been trained in Green Dot deescalation for sexual assault and violence. I am on the university academic disciplinary committee and have direct say over infractions like harassment or discrimination. And I sit on my college's Faculty Diversity Equity and Inclusion committee with the hope of including representation and inclusion of URM and female faculty. I care about this topic a LOT and do what I can...still probably not enough. | |
As for alums, if you see behavior at CMU that you think is antithetical to inclusiveness, let the administration know. Get your fellow alums to weigh in. The university wants your sweet sweet alumni donations. If you are all pissed off, they'll reply. | |
Hey Professor! I absolutely love to give. But I feel so awkward being thanked. And I dont really like receiving gifts. What would the psychology behind that be? | Great question. It's hard to know without more detail, but I'd guess that some of that anxiety is about attention...as in, your lack of desire for it. As for not liking receiving gifts, maybe you have just not received that many good gifts? Again, it's really hard to say without knowing a bit more about you and the gift giving contexts you're involved in. If you want to share more, I can try to answer better, but totally understandable if you don't! |
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Well, if I think more deeply....whenever I need something, I feel like it's up to me to make me happy. I usually don't really ask anyone else. Whether I need a massage, have a getaway, or get my dream dog, I just do it myself. | As an aside, self-gifts are great! You get what you need, and nothing else. No issues there. |
To your question, though, I do wonder if you just haven't receive that many great gifts. Yes, gifts can fall flat and the recipient might not love them, but when they hit, they not only provide the value from the gift itself (e.g. a great bottle of wine) but ALSO the sentimental value from the associations that the gift brings up (e.g. who gave it to you and under what circumstances...like for a birthday or graduation). | |
Hi Jeff, I have a job application at a place where they do conjoint analysis, something I have never done before. Got any tips? Do you have any thoughts on the technique in general? Personally as someone who takes surveys I find it very abstract (e.g. "Would you rather buy a $5 toaster with two slots vs. a $20 toaster that takes bagels?" I don't know!). | First, good luck with the job application! Conjoint is a really useful tool when used correctly (like any tool, I suppose). The short version is that it lets you extract utility weights for different dimensions (e.g. price, product size, product speed, etc...) without directly asking people to answer questions about those dimensions. So instead of saying "how important is price to you?" you would come up with product profiles that have varying price (among other things) and then have people choose between those profiles. You can then extract, using nothing more than regression analysis (though, practically, no one does it that way...they use software like Sawtooth or SPSS Conjoint), how important those dimensions are for any given person. |
the technique is tedious in that respondents have to make LOTS of pair-wise comparisons, but the end product can teach you a lot about what people actually value. | |
One key is to make the task as simple and realistic as possible. So the example you gave is confusing and wouldn't work too well. But I asked you to choose between a $20 toaster with 2 slots vs. a $30 toaster with 3 slots" that would work (in reality it would be more complex than that). You'd be forced to tell me if you prefer a cheaper toaster with fewer slots or a more expensive one with more slots. There's not right answer, but I would learn about those two dimensions for you. I'd need a lot more pair-wise tradeoffs to do this right, but that's the general idea. | |
Do you find that there are significant differences between particular groups? Does age influence gift giving habits more then sex, or some other factor? Just curious about the general trends of gift giving between groups. Super general question I know, so feel free to just call me out on it | Definitely difference across genders as you would expect. More jewelry given by men to women. More gadgets given by women to men. Not so much in terms of age, though I've never really directly looked at that. The reality is that most gifts aren't that exciting. They tend to be things that are popular in a given year or old standbys like gift cards and ties. There certainly are amazing gifts and gift givers out there, but the vast majority of actual gifts given are pretty mundane. But that's not a bad thing if the recipient still likes what they get! |
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Yeah, sounds about right. And yeah if everyone is chipper it's all good :) Is there a sort of gift quality vs quantity data? Like is it better to get more frequent smaller gifts or largemore expensive gifts less frequently? | Smaller more frequent gifts every time. I have some new work on obligatory vs. non-obligatory gifts. Basically, you can make someone very happy by giving a small gift on a random Tuesday compared to a much nicer gift on their Birthday. More random-tuesday gifts every time! |
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Thank you! :) will the results of that be on ur channel? | Probably not. The channel isn't about my research, but rather about how to understand data more broadly. But the results will hopefully be published soon! |
How extensive are the consumer psychology divisions in companies like apple? | Lots of variation. Places like apple, google, amazon will have a lot of depth in terms of psychologist and consumer behavior researchers. But those are the gold standard. Most will rely on consultants to help out |
How does education on finance and economics affect consumer behavior? Does knowing the way our brains make consumer decisions or how businesses try to get you to buy change how you shop? | If you understand better how firms are trying to entice you to buy their products, you can absolutely counteract that better. For instance, $1.99 is really just $2...we all get that. But it turns out, having a 9-ending price really drives demand. That's nuts, but it does. IF you understand that, you stand a shot and not being duped by something so trivial. So educating yourself can be a big help. On finance and econ eduction, also really helpful, but in other ways. When you go to get a 30-year mortgage for your home, understanding how interest rates work, how inflation might affect home prices, how amortization tables work, etc... will help you make a much more informed decision about what is right for you. |
hi! how do you predict consumer happiness/decision making etc during unprecedented times like this, when such a scenario may not have taken place before and you do not have much data to go on? also since the research you do and the data you collect are relevant to sales, do you see advertisements being affected by the pandemic in the long run from any changes in consumer mindset? | It's really hard to predict much of anything right now. There are some basic behaviors and experiences that we can expect during a pandemic (e.g. increased anxiety, defaulting to familiar experiences, increased online shopping), but the reality is you're right...we just don't know. There's virtually no data on pandemic psychology/behavior, and all the pop-science stuff you read is just guessing at what will happen. |
As for advertising, I think that once the pandemic is over, life will be back to what it was beforehand in almost every respect. People are amazing to adapting to changing circumstances. We are all doing that now with the pandemic and will all do that again when it's over. I don't think that advertising will be any different. Give it a year after we're all vaccinated (or whatever winds up being the solution) and most people will largely forget that we even had a pandemic. Yes, some will have big changes like lost loved ones or lost jobs, but for most people, life will return to what it was before Covid hit. | |
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thank you for answering, that is very interesting! the data you collect seems to be applicable to so many different fields. i asked about advertising as a student interested in media, but i can see it being useful in various types of companies be it internet security, food, travel etc. your job sounds really cool and i will definitely check out your YouTube channel :) | Thanks! |
Did you ever get to meet Herbert Simon? Wasn't he interested in similar things? | I wish! I've been at CMU for 11 years. Simon passed away in 2001, so I missed him by a few years. |
And yes, Simon was one of the original researchers into what's known as Bounded Rationality, it's the idea that humans don't act like computers and process all information simultaneously, but rather use heuristics and shortcuts to accomplish most tasks. | |
How influential was the work of Daniel Kahnemann to your current teaching? | VERY! I don't know Danny personally, but my advisor got his PhD at Princeton when Danny was there, so lots of indirect influence that way. More generally, the field of decision making was build on his (and others) work, so hard not to be influenced. |
Do you have any opinions on investors behavior during covid 19? More specifically how certain financial firms may have targeted people who have or would dabble in market that have recently lost work due to the pandemic? | Caveat: I am not a finance professor. That said, my read is that fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving a lot of unexpected behaviors. The market has rallied like crazy since the March low and everyone wants in on that. It's hard to sit by and watch others make a killing while you don't. |
As for practices like getting people who don't typically to invest to do so, there's two sides to this. On the one hand, getting more people involved with investing is a great thing. It used to be only that the very wealthy could invest and reap the benefits of the market, but now with places like Robinhood and fee-free trading on Schwab and the like, everyone can participate. On the other hand, MANY people don't understand risk well at all. They just see the possible upside and ignore the possibility of losing a lot (see that guy that committed suicide b/c of a terrible options trade...that's horrible). So firms and gov't have a responsibility to both educate investors and provide safeguards against uninformed behaviors. | |
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Hello, I just want to specify something in your comment! The young college student who committed suicide did so because a misprogrammed number on the trading site, Robinhood. Of course at the time he did not know it, but the value loss that was near $800,000, was showing the loss of the entire option, not his equity in the option, which was -$1,000 - -$2,000 if I remember right. It was Robinhood's terrible interface, not his misunderstanding of risk, which is horrible. If you would like a misunderstanding of risk on trading platforms, look no further than wallstreetbets, of course as you said FOMO is a huge factor, or if you're interested, some trading platforms intentionally advertise to consumers without properly representing risk. Thank you very much for this AMA, it has been quite insightful! | Thanks so much for that clarification! |
I have a question re: dating sites / apps. Is there a way to structure incentives so that the company is motivated to find good pairings between users? It feels like Tinder, Bumble, Hinge, etc. don't have such an incentive currently | I think they do have an incentive to make good pairings. Word of mouth is their strongest asset so having good matches is key. The challenge is that good matches are hard to come by and not everyone agrees on what good is. Is good marriage? Is it a fun night? Not clear. |
Hello Professor and thank you for taking this time. As a professional that works in marketing and a person who suffers from mental illnesses, it is often disheartening for me to see so much valuable research and findings be easily made available for use by companies for marketing and consumer exploitation while it is so difficult for those who are struggling to find information that could be beneficial to living their lives more freely. What are your thoughts on this, and do you think there are ways we could change the system to better benefit individuals needs directly? | The connection between marketing academia, marketing industry, and consumers just sucks. No one outside of academia reads marketing academic journals. Few in academia care if their work has applications (even in an applied field like marketing). And consumers can't be bothered (rightfully) to read through academic work to learn. |
Some solutions that I've seen that work: - Marketing Science Institute: this is an organization whose entire goal is link academia and practice. They have conferences where they invite folks from both sides to collaborate. More of this please! - Pop-science social science books like Freakonomics, Blink, Predictably Irrational, etc...: They all have plenty of shortcomings, but the authors all do an amazing job of conveying the ideas of academia to the public. I think that's fantastic. More of this too please! - Consulting for non-profits. I do this and many others do as well. We use our knowledge to help non-profits do their amazing work. This is a way to avoid that "exploitation" you mentioned and instead use what we know to help others. There's not much money in this kind of consulting, which is why few do it, but it's really important. Maybe some kind of granting agency could earmark money for non-profits to hire academic consultants to help them use what we know to help the world. That would be awesome | |
hey, I'm a recent advertisement graduate, it's good to see someone from such a familiar field here anyways, when I do groceries, I always follow the list to a T, and I take no time at all getting the items, basically, I go against every little trick supermarkets have to "seduce" the customer, so my question is: what makes someone a "good customer"? is it someone highly susceptible to the marketing tricks at the market or someone who spends both their money and time more efficiently? | Good can mean different things here. You sound like you're probably super loyal to products. That's pretty great for most companies. The fact that you don't succumb to unintended purchases definitely makes you less attractive in one capacity, but your predictability makes you very attractive in other ways. If I could run a company where every customer always bought the same thing every week, I would LOVE that. I would know how to schedule raw material purchases, delivery schedules, etc... I would have a steady and dependable income. If, however, I relied just on getting lucky and catching the eye of customers as they passed my products on store shelves, that would be a whole lot more difficult a business plan to execute. |
Hi Jeff, I have always geared my life towards maxing out the benefits and deducting the losses for example leaving my family in order to search for better life oportunities, ditching jobs where I felt safe in favor of new and more promising ones. And by this logic I have reached quIte far in my life. But at the end achieving all this goals don't yields the expected satisfaction. However I'm pretty sure that don't doing this would be even worse. Why does it seems that no matter if the desitions taken are the best at my point of view it still seems like I need more than the goals I have achieved. Why is disatisfaction the expected result? | Wow, that's a lot to give up for goals! People are inherently likely to make what are known as upward comparisons. We don't look at the people who we have done better than, but instead focus on the few who done better than us. The classic example is Silver Olympic medalists. They should be elated, but instead they just covet the Gold medalist. |
Beyond that, in your specific case, it's hard to say for sure, but we know that close relationships are the number one driver of life satisfaction. If you've given those all up in pursuit of some other goal, that might explain things a bit. Take that with a grain of salt as all I know about you is summed up in 100 words or so! | |
Hello Jeff, glad to see this AMA here! I'm a statistics student in Brazil (one of my professors got his doctorate degree at Carnegie Mellon University, in fact!). Much of what we learn nowadays is related to careers pertaining the finance fields. Other stuff includes academic research mixed with other fields. I see myself as a data analyst for a big bank someday, but I always think: is there any career for a data scientist thats underrated by modern standards but still awesome and rewarding, in your opinion? | Go work for a non-profit! It's now where the money is, but many need help from data scientists. You can actually change the world that way! |
Which US dollar bill is your favorite? | Cash? You still use cash? |
the below is a reply to the above | |
For coke yeah | Oh, in that case.... Nope, not replying and losing my tenure :) |
the below is a reply to the above | |
Prof, you have a bias. OP mean Coca Cola. | I don't drink soda either :) |
Finance is always one of the most practical application scenarios, and there is no exception in the blockchain industry. submitted by ThemisOracle to u/ThemisOracle [link] [comments] DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is a representative of blockchain finance that mainly refers to decentralized lending, that is, digital currency users can mortgage their digital currency to the DeFi platform to obtain interest, and they can also borrow from the DeFi platform. DeFi is one of the few popular projects in recent years. When the public chain is still competing with each other in the traditional market, DeFi has already marched marched into the vast potential market. Recently, the scale of DeFi lock up has continued to rise, reaching approximately US$1.23 billion, and the competitiveness has gradually concentrated. According to relevant data, the number of ETH lock up is approximately 3.54 million, accounting for 3.2% of its total supply; while the number of EOS lock up is approximately 82.61 million, accounting for 8.11% of its total supply. In the lock up market, the lock up scale of Maker is approximately US$450 million, with a market share of 37%, which it’s the highest market share rate. The lock up scale of EOS REX comes next with approximately US$230 million, with a market share of 19%; while the lock up scale of Edgeware is approximately US$150 million, with a market share 13%. The other platforms take up the market share of 32%, with the lock up scale of US$390 million. Trend of locked-up value distribution The development of DeFi is rapid, and the public has paid an increasing attention to DeFi. The internal reason is the rise of financial services with digital currency as the main body with self-controlled private keys, which is also an embodiment of the diverse application ecology. Among them, Oracle plays an indispensable role in DeFi. In 1939, Alan Turing, the father of computer, put forward the concept of Oracles and hypercomputation in his doctoral dissertation. Oracle machine is more powerful than the Turing machine and can answer some questions that cannot be solved by calculation. Oracle machine is more like a data-based derivation, for example, it can predict questions such as “who will win the presidential election in the future". As the blockchain technology has entered the era of smart contracts, Oracles also ushered in new opportunities. Blockchain network cannot independently collect external information, and the oracle mechanism is the mechanism by which information outside the blockchain is written into the blockchain, making oracle become the interactive interface between blockchain smart contract and the external world. With Oracles, real-world data can be found and verified, and later be submitted to smart contract in an encrypted manner. Oracle allows certain smart contracts to react to the uncertain external world, and can be simply understood as a pre-processor for external data or a third-party data agent. Due to the differences in the technologies used by different Oracles, the classification standards vary. Among them, Random Oracle represented by Themis is a rising star with a broader application potential and market prospects from the perspective of technical characteristics and product advantages. Can Random Oracle Lead the Trend? With the rapid development of the DeFi industry, Oracle has attracted great interest and popularity. On July 13, the price of Token LINK of the Oracle project ChainLINK reached over US$8, with a 24-hour increase rate of over 30%. Since March 12, the price of Token LINK has increased by over 400%, and its market value has surpassed EOS. The boom of LINK is inseparable from the prosperity of the DeFi industry. The total market value of DeFi has risen from less than US$10 to US$8 billion in 60 days. Although the rise is partly due to the COVID epidemic and the weakening global economic situation, it is certain that DeFi has come to its time, and the industry explosion of oracle, the core of DeFi, is inevitable. It is worth mentioning that Oracle has a far greater potential. In addition to DeFi, Oracle can be applied in many other practical scenarios where blockchain applications need to interact with off-chain data. Base on the difference of Oracle project technology, the application prospect of Random Oracle is the most promising. The traditional random number generation method is centralized, and the specific value of the random number is related to the physical state of the specific machine. The random number on the blockchain needs to be distributed, yet VRF requires randomness, making the two hard to integrate. To solve this problem, Random Oracle came into being. In addition to the combination of mainstream public chains, DeFi and Random Oracles, Themis mainly focuses on random number oracle, in-chain asset price oracle, computational oracle and other application scenes, including letting cryptocurrency be precisely linked to legal tender; pricing a package of tokenized assets or securities; incorporating interest rates into smart financial derivative contracts; event trigger based on precise SI (International System of Units) time measurement; working as a weather forecast based insurance fee calculator; predicting market trends and sports betting-related contracts; interoperable functions; gas price predictors etc. In the market of finance, insurance, betting, and the Internet of Things etc that concerns trillions of dollars, Themis can play an important role. Insurance: Users purchase aviation delay insurance, crop insurance and other insurance on the insurance platform and Themis can introduce external data sources for such events, so that smart contracts can make decisions about whether to settle insurance products according to the agreement. Gambling: Ensure the fairness, real-time and safe payment of the games through smart contracts, which is more of advantages compared with traditional centralized casinos. The most important thing for non-centralized casino applications is the unpredictable and verifiable random number input. In this field, Themis is highly integrated with the application scenarios. Internet of Things: A blockchain-based Internet of Things application can transmit off-chain sensor information to the blockchain through Themis, allowing the smart contract to trigger the next action after verification. Financial lending: Financial lending allows users to mortgage crypto assets to borrow fiat currency or other encrypted assets. The platform can use Themis to monitor the margin ratio of the collateral, and will issue a warning and trigger the liquidation process when the margin is insufficient. At the same time, Themis can import the credit rating of the borrowers to the system to determine the corresponding loan interest rate. In all, it is obvious that with the maturity of the technology and products in the field of Random Oracles and the full opening of the commercial market, Themis will achieve a rapid development, and its business layout is expected to grow exponentially. How Can a Project Stand out in the Competitive Oracle Market? At present, of all the oracle projects in the market, ChainLink, Oraclize, Themis, DOS Network, and OracleChain are the more mainstream ones. ChainLink is committed to building a highly reliable distributed oracle network; Oraclize is a centralized oracle with proof of authenticity and it currently supports multiple platforms such as Ethereum, Rootstock, R3 Corda, Hyperledger Fabric and EOS; OracleChain is a decentralized oracle platform based on the EOS platform for the EOS ecosystem; while DOS Network is a decentralized oracle service network that supports multiple mainstream public chains. Unlike all the above projects, Themis is one of the few oracle service networks based on Random Oracles. In terms of technical implementation, the design of the oracle in practical applications always focuses on three elements: Integrity, Confidentiality, and Availability. Integrity means that the information is complete, accurate and reliable, and has not been destroyed or tampered with intentionally or unintentionally. Confidentiality means that the content requested by the smart contract from the oracle machine will not be leaked. Availability means that when data is retrieved through the oracle, the required information can be obtained in time, including the realization of censorship-resistance. In general, in order to take into account of all the above three elements, each oracle project adopts different technical implementation strategies. ChainLink's plan is to combine reputation contracts, order matching contracts and aggregation contracts; DOS Network uses verifiable random equations and threshold passwords; while Themis introduced verifiable random function (VRF). Technology is to serve different scenarios. As we can see in the market, most of the current mainstream public chain projects have adopted the technical solution strategy of PoS+BFT+VRF. The expansion of the public chain has reached the bottleneck, and DeFi has greatly helped public chain keep its vitality and maintain the flow of funds. With the further opening of the DeFi market, the demand for Oracles in the financial, gambling, and Internet of Things markets will continue to increase. Making good use of Verifiable Random Function (VRF), Themis can integrate better with the technical equipment and engineering implementation, and meet most of the mainstream commercial needs. It is expected that the Random Oracle represented by Themis will welcome its boom in the near future. |
This is why I said for nCoV to "blow over", an affordable treatment needs to be developed pretty much right now. Think about it, who would unnecessarily risk a trip to the movies or take a vacation with the risk of a catching HIGHLY infectious disease that spreads in many ways and spreads asymptomatically and can outright KILL you at up to a 25% probability without hospitalization?
Affordable and effective treatment SOON and vaccines before the next flu seasons are crucial to avoiding lasting economic decline
But why would there be economic decline? Well, because people will change their behavior as long as the threat of the virus remains. Let's look at what industries will be affected:
So if my logic and assumptions are correct, we are looking at an inescapable catastrophe for the Asian tourism industry at the very least. Just in Time manufacturing keep about 2 weeks worth of parts. Most businesses already adjusted their supplies to account for the normal Chinese New Year shutdown. We are now coming up on the limits of most JIT supplies. So expect some pretty bad news to be coming out this week and especially by later this month. I'm seeing pretty big dips in the stock market by April. Probably -15% by April and up to -35% by the end of the year. This will be our "dip".After I posted this thread, the market (American) went on to make record breaking all time highs. I believe a few things are responsible for this:
RNA viruses like nCoV mutates extremely quickly. This means potential resistance or immunization from catching nCoV once may be lost if the virus mutates enough. This also means that there may never be permanent immunization. Any vaccine developed for it may only be effective for a portion of the mutations. And each flu season may bring many different strains of this virus that will be unaffected by developed vaccines. In other words, nCoV may be here to stay, much like other flu viruses.
Fire and Emergency New Zealand is updating the fire seasons for Auckland. From Monday 2 December it will declare a restricted season across greater Auckland and a prohibited fire season across all the islands of the Hauraki Gulf. A prohibited season means a total fire ban, with any current fire permits for the area suspended from the date the prohibited season starts. A restricted fire season means any open-air fires will need a permit.
I had legitimately quit sports betting three weeks ago. Since I began sports betting in September of 2019, I had used my love for data - and the over-confidence in my ability to interpret it - to make my bets. Simply put, most systems don’t work in betting, because no matter what system you develop, Vegas is one step ahead of you. While betting on sports, I would lose, and lose, and lose - week after week. The most I was ever down - prior to my meltdown this weekend - was $1,000. My deficit touched $900 about three times in my two months betting on sports, and three times I had hit a huge bet to cover my losses. After each of these huge bets, I always swore to myself, and to God, that I would take the money and never gamble again. submitted by JH685 to problemgambling [link] [comments] The last of the three recouping bets was a $1250 bet with a payout of $2400. I used a simple averages system to make a pick on the under of an NBA game. After I sweat my bet out, and thankfully watched it hit, I was up $350 overall. For someone who hits their bets at about 22%, being up was a relief. I truly hit my “50-50” bets, which are always single bets (never parlays), at a clip lower than 25%. Prior to this massive bet, I deleted all of my spreadsheets and un-bookmarked all betting sites. I had spent hours and hours on these spreadsheets, but I needed to delete them to remove the urge to continue my addiction. This was the second time I had tried to quit, and I felt that it was going to be easy to do with Thanksgiving Break coming up. You can’t legally bet on sports in Colorado, nor can you access online betting accounts. After my connecting flight landed in Atlanta, I found myself sitting in the terminal, scrolling through Twitter. I saw a tweet from a man named Todd Fuhrman, retweeted by a betting account I followed. Shoot, I had forgotten to unfollow and/or block these accounts. The tweet read: https://preview.redd.it/xa03brsa0y341.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=822244438ed97cc024dbf304a16429aa4b4a48af As a senior in college, I was excited about my job search, and I had been attempting to land sports statistics jobs for the past three weeks, applying at over 20 different organizations. This ‘US Sports Trader’ position in Las Vegas included setting accurate betting lines and monitoring account activity. It was all numbers, and I was a quantitative thinker. This seemed like a huge opportunity to me. To be able to dominate in your career and love what you do… well, that is the dream. I immediately emailed Mr. Khalili, my ‘potential new boss,’ directly and shut off my phone, ready to hop on my second and final flight of the night. The next afternoon, I received a response from Mr. Khalili, who proposed we set up an interview for the following week. Knowing that I would need to be prepared for the interview, I began to gather data and re-construct my betting spreadsheets. I felt sick to my stomach in doing so. I knew that this was dangerous, but I would never allow myself to come unprepared for a job interview. Besides, if I landed this position, I would be working on the other side of the ticket. My interview went well, despite a minor hiccup at the end. Mr. Khalili said that he would love to have another discussion within the next month, and that his boss would be included in our next conversation. Wanting to be more prepared, I began obsessing over the details of my spreadsheets. I wanted everything to be accurate, precise, and most of all - impressive. The problem with keeping these spreadsheets, is that for someone like me, you start to recognize trends. I began seeing more and more trends, and I just couldn’t help myself. I wrote down some mock-bets for the following week’s NFL card. I did well that week. Really well. I had never done that well when betting real money. When I flew back to Philadelphia the following Sunday, I knew that I had fallen back into the trap. I was eager to create an online sports-betting account; the kind my friends and roommates raved about and bet through daily. By having an online account, I wouldn’t have to bike five miles to and from the casino every time I wanted to place a bet. I set up my account that night, and even put some smaller bets down on the lines I liked the most. See, my new system was to target bad-weather games. In the NFL, when a game has horrible weather, it typically hits the under. The oveunder, for those of you who have never bet on sports, refers to the number of total combined points amassed between the two teams at the end of a game/match. Being overly-confident in my assumptions, I thought this system was fool-proof. As it turns out, it was just as pathetic as the five or six other algorithms I had previously tried to employ. I looked at the upcoming NFL games all week, but the forecast predicted good weather for practically every Sunday game. I was supposed to be studying for my finals, but instead I was looking at betting lines. I got impatient. I started looking at each of the upcoming college games. The PAC12 Championship would be played in Santa Clara on Friday night, and unrelenting, heavy rain was supposed to pound the city all afternoon. I put $500 down on the under (45.5) and began to get excited about the prospect of “easy money.” When Friday rolled around, I again checked the forecast for the game. All of a sudden, the rain, which was supposed to begin at 1pm and continue through the next morning, was forecasted to begin at 7pm PT, one hour after game time. I began to get nervous. Historically, I am a very unlucky/unskilled bettor. At a rate of 22% on single bets, it doesn’t take a genius to know that the ’50-50’ odds associated with the type of bets I placed, rarely seem to fall in my favor. Nonetheless, the game would be impacted for the remaining two hours, so the under still seemed like a smart play. The game began, and the entire first quarter passed without a rain drop in sight. I felt lucky that the total combined score was only 10 after this quarter - still on track, I thought. Light rain fell in the second quarter, but stopped almost as soon as it started. The game went into the half at 20 total points - still on pace to be under 45.5. I nervously looked at the forecast for Santa Clara again. To my disappointment, the forecast now projected an hour of cloudy skies with no rain. The Ducks and Utes combined for 18 points in the third quarter, and I now had only a 7-point buffer heading into the final 15 minutes. The fourth quarter began, and the rain sprinkled ever-so-softly. The rain was so light that it had absolutely no impact on the game. Halfway through the fourth quarter, Oregon’s running back drilled a 70 yard touchdown run into the end zone, and the total score was now at 45, half a point under my safety net. Time passed, and the rain continued to stay away from Levi Stadium. With only two minutes left in the game, and Oregon at the Ute’s 30 yard-line, all they needed to do to run the clock out was get a first down. Their halfback got the first down. In fact, he got the first down and ran all the way into the endzone, scoring another six points and putting the total over 45.5. I had lost. $500 was gone in that instant. I went to bed that night as I always did after losing a large amount of money on sports-betting, feeling pathetic. The feeling you get from losing, or at least the one I get, is far more impactful than the feeling I get from winning. I was depressed. See, I’m not good at losing. One of my worst qualities, next to my lack of patience, is my inability to accept a loss. More specifically, I really couldn’t handle financial losses. I overvalued, and still do, my financial worth. I have come to realize that I make my financial value synonymous to my self-worth. Needless to say, I had an impossible time accepting a financial loss due ignorant confidence. Two years prior, I had blown through my entire savings ($15,000) in the cryptocurrency market, which crashed two months after I began investing. Losing all the money I had made in the previous year - working so, so hard - threw me into a deep depression. My grades suffered, my mental health suffered, and I stopped taking care of myself. As someone who is very private about their shortcomings and issues, I kept my depression to myself. This is a topic for another time, but it serves as a reminder of how ignorant financial decisions can impact the more important aspects of my/your life. Following my gambling loss this past Friday night, I sadly looked for another game that would be impacted by the same system. It was supposed to rain, uninterrupted, in Sacramento for the entire weekend. I put $600 down on the under in Sacramento the next day. IT WAS SUPPOSED TO POUR, WITHOUT INTERMISSION, FOR THE ENTIRE GAME. The game rolled around the next night, and yet again the weather turned out of my favor. In fact, I got so unlucky with the rain that a four-hour dry period popped up right at the start of game-time. It rained for three hours before the game and for many, many hours immediately after the game. It probably goes without saying, but I watched both teams score… and score… and score. I lost the bet. This time, that pathetic, self-deprecating feeling hit twice as hard. I couldn’t stand to go to bed like this, and so I bet what was left in my account ($750) on a live NBA bet. I bet on another under, thinking the team that was leading by 20 points would run some clock at the end of the game. I was wrong. After placing my bet, I sat there and watched them score… and score… and score. I had lost again - $1850 in a 24-hour period. I have never been down that much money. I am blessed to have discovered a bountiful (legal) source of income, so it’s not money that I couldn’t afford to lose. But $1850 to a strong majority of people, including myself, is still a lot of money to lose in a 24 hour period - especially when its doing something as silly as betting on sports (something I had sworn off just three weeks prior). $1850 may not seem like an addiction to most of you, but I have been unsuccessfully battling an attempt to quit gambling for the past two months. It’s not about the amount. It’s about how aggressively it impacts the rest of my life. After this third and final loss, I was so upset with myself. I sat in silence for three hours and watched gambling addiction testimonials. I didn’t even sleep that night. Instead, I decided to write my own gambling addiction testimonial, the one you’re reading right now. I have a problem. It’s hard for me to admit when I have a problem, but it’s harder to ignore it when it slaps you in the face (like sports-betting has done to me). As a believer in God, I am taking this as a lesson from Him and an opportunity to learn from my mistakes. At the time of this article, I have now closed my account, unfollowed and blocked all betting accounts/sites, and deleted all of my statistical spreadsheets. I never want to feel this way again. My grades have suffered. My physical and mental health has suffered. The one thing I value so much – productivity – has been relatively absent in my life over the past three months. I can’t get those three months back, but I can certainly decide to stop this perpetual problem right now… and so that’s what I will do. I will be willing to accept this loss in order to move forward with my life, and I couldn’t be more excited to do so. |
Casino forecast: Saturday Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the S in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. Casino weather, Northern Rivers, NSW - 7-day weather forecast and current temperature and Grafton weather radar from Farmonline Weather. The warmest day over the next 25 days weather in Casino is forecast to be Saturday 30th January 2021 at 17°C (63°F) and the warmest night on Saturday 30th January 2021 at 12°C (54°F). The average temperature over the next 25 days in Casino from this forecast is 11°C (52°F) and there will be 2 days of sunshine . Casino weather, Northern Rivers, NSW - 7-day weather forecast and current temperature and Grafton weather radar The Long-range 12 day forecast also includes detail for Casino weather today. Live weather reports from Casino weather stations and weather warnings that include risk of thunder, high UV index and forecast gales. See the links below the 12-day Casino weather forecast table for other cities and towns nearby along with weather conditions for local outdoor activities. Nevada nv, Weather 30 Day Expect rainy weather Saturday evening through Sunday morning... Weekly Forecast; Monthly Forecast; Contact; 10.Feb.2021 ; Laughlin Weather 30 Day. 5 days, 7 days, 10 day, 14 days, 15 days, 16 days, 25 days, 30 days, 45 days, 60 days, 90 days. Expect rainy weather Saturday evening through Sunday morning... Date Weather Pre. Hi. Low; Wed 2/10: Mostly sunny and nice: 75 7 day forecast, current, today and yesterday weather rain and temperature readings, sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset and detailed local weather almanac Casino Richmond Valley, New South Wales (Australia), elevation 25 m. Forecast Forecast; Nearby Nearby; Map Map; It looks like you're using an old browser. To access all of the content on Yr, we recommend that you update your browser. Current conditions. fair. Temperature 28 ° 28 ° Feels like 29 ° Precipitation 0 mm. Wind 2 m/s light breeze from north 2 m/s. Table Graph. Weather forecast for Casino, Australia Weather 14 Day Trend. Here is your temperature trend for the next 14 Days. To see the daily forecast, scroll to the table below. 14 Days. Previous 7 days Next 7 days. Feels like Casino weather forecast updated daily. BoM weather radar, satellite and synoptic charts. Current conditions, warnings and historical records Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the evening. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 18 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s. Casino weather forecast issued
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