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- Know the smart, sharp sportsbooks. Many aren't in the United States. If you're serious about betting on sports, then, simply put, you have to know the sharp books. Who's lines can you trust? Pinnacle, 5dimes, and Betfair exchange (for most sports) are great. They take lots of volume, have very tight lines, and are very efficient. They get many, many multiples the volume of Fanduel, DraftKings, and other US sportsbooks. You can't bet on them if you are in the U.S. since they are offshore, but you look at them to determine what are good betting opportunities. If Pinnacle and other sharp books all make a game +110/-120, then you should be pretty thrilled to buy the favored team for +100 on Fanduel (as an example). A (maybe?) decent analogy - if some stock is trading $300 on major exchanges with tons of volume, and somebody says they'll sell it to you at $290, then that sounds pretty good...Arbitrage exists in sports betting, and that's fantastic. Take advantage of it. Use efficient markets to make cash off the inefficient markets of US sportsbooks. Take the profitable bets when they arise. submitted by stats_and_sports to sportsbetting [link] [comments] Everything is obviously my opinion, but, hey, I have at least a little credibility in the space ;) Message me any questions you have on any of these topics as well Fanduel Profit & Loss - Again, sports betting is all about probability (law of large numbers...). In every game, there is always a price I'd buy both teams. If Was Football is currently trading +380 vs. the Bucs in major markets, I'd happily buy them +450 if I could find it on Fanduel or Barstool or whatever. I'd also happily but the Bucs -300. No team is 100% to win (lol Rams Jets). If a team is +1500, they only need to win 1/16 of times for you to break even. And, similarly, if a team is -1500, they need to win 15/16 times for you to break even. That's an important consideration for anybody parlaying favorites...Remember the relationship between implied probability and sportsbook odds. Let's say a sharp book like Pinnacle makes an NBA game -120/+110: that means that favored team is roughly (120/220+110/210)/2 to win the game. That's the breakeven odds, the fair odds, from that book. Of course, lines could be slanted, and it gets more complicated for certain wagers, but you get the point. You can also use these sharp betting sites to price "odds boosts" and other promotions. If a boost is "Lakers & Mavs" to win +290, then back out the probability the Lakers win, and the probability the Mavs win, from Pinnacle or another sharp sportsbook. Multiply the probabilities (the games are independent), then calculate the implied odds. If Mavs/Lakers parlay is trading +320, don't bet it, you're getting bad odds. If it's trading +250, bet it, it is profitable (EV per $ = 1/3.5 x 2.9 + 2.5/3.5 x -1). - My go to resource: Sportsbook review (I have 0 affiliation, some random company). No need to spend money on upgrades at all, I don't pay for anything on their platform, I just use it. They show you real time odds from sharp overseas sportsbooks so you can follow line movements. As an example, let's say the Titans pop to +140 fair odds (they're trading like +185 right now) on a variety of sharp sportsbooks, then I'll try to buy some Titans +175 on whatever US sportsbook I can before the line moves. When lines move, they are highlighted in bright red on the site which is very useful. There are tons, tons of other resources I use to pick off books and find good bets, but this is the #1 most valuable, free resource. - There's basically never a deposit bonus (or DraftKings "mission") that's not worth it. I've had play throughs of 10x for sportsbook for 50% deposit bonuses, etc. The sportsbook thinks they are making money because they're winning the vig. But not with us ;) Use sportsbookreview to find lines that look good. I have an arbitrage bot to show me all market arbs, then I'll just bet the +EV side. Pretty easy to get significant volume on any book since none of the US books are particularly good at setting & adjusting lines...Betting more volume also = higher probability of getting VIP promotions = more promotions = more money for you. - I know I've said this before in other discussions, but consider the longevity of your account. Before max betting an error on Fanduel, realize that Fanduel has limited tens of thousands of bettors at this point, and you could be next. Do you love all those dope promos and odds boosts? Would kind of suck to get $2 on them (my experience...) for one good bet. Betting errors for massive size is a sure-fire way to get limited quick. Again, I've said this before, so sorry for the repeat, but this is a critical point. $500 now is NOT worth it for an account worth thousands per month. - Use free bets and profit boosts on long shots that look good to sharp markets on Pinnacle, etc. It's mathematically optimal. Never, please never, put a free bet or profit boost on a +100 wager. - If you are arbing, realize that, overall, you're just making a ton of profitable bets and unprofitable bets to make a little bit of profit. There's always a profitable side. If you can tolerate some risk, it's more profitable to just bet the side that's good (of course) Otherwise, you're typically giving up like 3.5% to get out of your risk, and losing that profit margin. It all averages out anyways... Example: Fanduel is +190 Rockets, DraftKings -170 Mavs. Every other smart book on SportsBookReview is -210/+240. Just bet the Mavs. Who wants to buy a team +190 trading around +225? Lost profit margin. - Don't watch games you bet big on. Just frustrating when you lose. Consider your mental health. It's random - sometimes you catch a bad beat, sometimes you get lucky. Just make good bets. - Join a community of smart bettors. Spit ball bet ideas off each other. Use math and liquid lines to price wagers. There are dozens of +EV prop bets every day. Find them, just takes a bit of effort. Dang, well, a lot, a lot more to write, but will keep it there for now. Feel free to message me any questions. Just the start of US sports betting. Let me know what else is helpful. Happy to write about / share whatever. Let's make cash ladies and gents. |
Week 17 Recap: Meh. Overall it was a decent week, we just missed on the Jets plus some points for a big day on a few plays. submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] Singles (10-12 +4.02u) Parlays (0-2 -7u) Teasers (0-1 -3.86u) BBDLS (0-7 -9u) https://preview.redd.it/3q91paz3rba61.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f33be1eb67eb515b339c606d16728951a301378 Super Wildcard Weekend!!! Saturday Games Colts at Bills: Quite an interesting matchup to open the day. The Colts only made it to the playoffs this year because the Bills helped them get in. The Colts needed the Bills to beat Miami in week 17, otherwise the Bills would be re-matching Miami, a team that they clearly would have crushed if they rested starters for a loss in week 17 like PIT. How ironic would it be if the Colts bumped the Red HOT Bills out in the first round?! 😅 Welp.... "The Bills are the fourth team over the last 40 seasons to enter the playoffs on an eight-game cover streak. The three teams before them all covered the spread in their first playoff game and won by at least 12 points. Additionally, Indy has failed to cover in each of its last three games, which is the longest active streak by a playoff team. "... it looks as if it might be an uphill battle. However, lets not hop on the Bills Mafia train too quickly. It appears that around 80% of the tickets and the cash are on the Bills, but the line hasn't moved from its 6.5 open except to DROP down to 6 in some spots. This is very indicative on some sharp money keeping balance on the Indy side. The same is true for the total. 80% of the tickets and 75% of the money is on the over, but the line opened 51.5 and has stayed true, or dropped to 51 in some spots. Looking deeper, we see one of the Bills weaknesses is their run defense. That plays perfectly into the Colts build as they are a team that likes to play great defense, establish the run, and take a few shots with Rivers. Also, Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with an average of 10.3 first-quarter points per game and the Colts scored at least 20 points in the first half in four of their final five games. If the Colts can build an early lead and rely on the run, this game has potential for an upset. Especially with how sneaky good their defense can be. As hard as it may be to bet, the value seems to be on the Colts with the points. If you're feeling really spicy and public contrarian, this is one of the three games I think a contrarian play holds some value this weekend. Rams at Seahawks: The first of the two divisional rematches of the weekend. The LA Rams won their week 17 game with a backup QB in his first start. That places them up against the Seahawks who ended the season with a close divisional win vs. the 49ers. (Before typing this rest of this match up, I want to put a disclaimer of Bias. I am on the Hawk train this year. My futures plays include them, and Baltimore(I had 4 futures plays paying above my "true odds" but the only two I played were SEA and BAL) Take my write up on this game with a grain of salt as I will be predicting SEA to win every game until they hold the SuperBowl trophy 🤑) First off we have the Rams. One of the main things they have going for them is their defense. It is by far the best in the league, with the next closest defense being the Steelers. That defense is legit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sack Russ a few times and if they are lucky, get points on defense. The second thing they have going for them is their coach. I think (don't quote me) McVay is 5-3 against SEA since he took over and he just won last week with a QB that had never played a NFL snap and went on to throw a pick on the opening drive and score 0 TDs in the game. Even IF Goff comes back and is 100% healthy, he only threw for 536 yards with 0 touchdowns and an interception while posting a QBR of under 55 in the combined first two matchups this year. Now Seattle on the other hand. If they can pull it all together, meaning their first half of the season offense with their second half of the season defense....Game over. On the league. For this game in particular though, I don't think much has to be done. The most I can give back up QB for the Rams is 10-13 points and if Goff is in, I give him a ceiling of 20-23 points (Ceiling is all things going well) So IF Goff his 100 percent healthy, hits his ceiling, AND the Rams defense continues its regular season dominance by helping out with a score and keeping SEA under 24-27, then maybe the Rams can win. But lets be real, the Rams were my second favorite team to come out of the NFC (Behind SEA) until they played the Jets. From that game on, it has been a feeling of MEH, when considering the Rams chances to advance this year. And to top that feeling off, Russ is a perfect 5-0 in post season Home Games and Carrol is also perfect at home in the post season at 6-0. The last time that Seattle lost in the playoffs at home was against the St. Louis Rams in 2004. Now I know this isn't the Legion of Boom, and the 12th man won't be there because...COVID... but Russ and company having the edge of no travel, sleep in their own bed... Is all I need. I am ride or die on Seattle, baby! Tampa Bay at Washington: This is one of the harder games for me to gauge. My algo has this as a Tampa Bay victory the majority of the time (82/18). It sees this game similar to the Rams situation in that their defense is pretty good, can possibly get some points, but the offense may have a hard time finding the end zone. My algo does favor this spot for the WAS defense, more than it does the Rams defense, based solely on the offensive line for TB vs SEA and the mobility of SEA QB vs. Lead Toes Tommy when he is under pressure. But, EVEN IF WAS somehow gets a defensive score and an extra turnover or two, can they really keep up with how Brady has been playing as of late? Alex Smith hasss returned from his gruesome injury like some kind of God, going 5-1 in his 6 starts this year. ANNNNND The only home underdogs of over a TD in NFL playoff history: • 2010 7-9 Seahawks WON OUTRIGHT "Beast Quake" - Marshawn Lynch's TD literally set off vibrations • 2011 8-8 Broncos WON OUTRIGHT "Tebow 3:16" - Tim Tebow throws for 316 yards & OT TD • 2020 7-9 Washington ???? Five years ago, a 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers team coached by Ron Rivera beat an 11-5 Arizona Cardinals team coached by Bruce Arians in the first round of the playoffs. So confused on this one, I may just look at Gronk to score a TD (He and Brady need 1 to break the record for QB/Pass catcher post season) and stay away from everything else. But Ill probably end up teasing TB and then around game time taking WAS plus the points and looking for a middle. Sunday Games Honestly, It is 2am and I wanna get some sleep. I will touch this up tomorrow, post it and post Sunday games on Sunday morning. Singles (101-128-1, -26.09u)
Parlays (6-32, +26.96u)
Teasers (4-5, +30.74u)
Futures plays: (Disclaimer: This is the first season I am making such large Futures plays. These are based upon my algo, but more importantly the fact that the poker side of my life had a great 2020 and I set aside extra Bankroll for just this type of play. My future plays have a very small sample size of being +EV so tail with caution...because I sure am) Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u) Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u) So, when crunching the different SB scenarios (with a Bias towards SEA having a 75% chance to win this first game and 50% chances to win the next two) It gave me that the SEA/BAL matchup was at 3.4 percent of the time and if we assume SEA wins that 50% of the time we get crudely a 1.7% chance of happening. DK is paying 100-1 for SEA to beat BAL in the superbowl. Since I already have futures on SEA to win the NFC and SB, I took the SEA to beat BAL 100-1 odds thinking that if by some stroke of luck we get the 1.7% universe, I will have already won SEA to win NFC and can consider hedging those winnings on the BAL side if they happen to be catching points. I know its a universe that is only 1.7% in existence (and that's in my mind too, haha) but based upon those calculations the casinos true odds should be closer to 58.8-1 and they are paying 100 to 1. So to wrap all that up... LETS GO ALL BIRDS SUPERBOWL!!!! SEA to beat BAL in the SuperBowl (90u to win 9000u) Thanks for reading everyone! Check back tomorrow for my Sunday picks. Good luck to all! 🤩 |
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Compared to some sites that take a week or two to pay, a 24-hour turnaround possibility is a considerable benefit.Highly Recommended For Sports BettorsNot only is the sportsbook extremely functional and, even the absolute beginner can navigate him or herself around easily, but this operator focuses on promotional opportunities for sports punters and provides an “odds boost” section. Players who use both the sportsbook and casino won’t miss out on anything by having to choose one over the other. The welcome bonus package and other offers aren’t “either or.” Clients can take advantage of all of the offers but just can’t combine the types of betting when meeting a wagering requirement.The Bad StuffMobile CasinoWhile I wouldn’t exactly call the mobile casino “bad,” it was disappointing. While there are plenty of gaming options, just over 400 to be more precise, it lacks the sorting mechanisms and information provided on the full website. 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Withdrawal MethodsWithdrawals are processed internally within 24 hours, which is relatively fast. I read through some player forums, and most people backed up that 24-hour window. However, the money will only be in your hands within that period if you opted for Neteller or Skrill as your deposit method.Your payout uses the same system as for deposits and opting for these e-wallets eliminates a lengthy external processing. Regarding fees for payouts, if you do a quick glance at the information table, you won’t see any listed. However, I did note that in a separate area comeon.com publicizes that only two free withdrawals are allowed for every 30 days. After that, there is a €5 charge for all subsequent cash outs.
Customer ServiceThe customer service department is reachable by live chat or email only. There isn’t a posted email address. You will need to use their prepared form if you don’t like the chat option.As a tip, though, there are some great FAQs hidden in the help area. I searched to find these and came up empty until I clicked the tiny little green question mark on the right side of the screen that I thought would initiate a chat. Instead, I found a comprehensive help section tucked in there including all of the banking information that I previously couldn’t locate either. So, your questions may be answered just by reviewing that information. But, if you do need to get one-on-one assistance, the service agents are known to be fast responding, courteous, and very helpful. |
If you place a four-team parlay, and three out of four wins with one tie, your bet will pay out as a three-team parlay instead. Odds for sporting events can get quite complex, especially for those new to sports betting. Combining different odds for different events can get even more confusing. That’s why many people use a parlay odds calculator. Using a betting odds calculator, it is possible to find out what the actual payout amount will be. Click here for an example parlay odds calculator. Basically, it is possible to say that there are two types of parlay bet. These are: Point-spread parlay: Odds are fixed. Moneyline parlay: There are no fixed odds. The Parlay Calculator indicates how much money sports bettors can win if they placed a bet on a certain number of games. For example; if I were to place a $20 wager on 3-teams football parlay at -110 money line odds, my parlay payout would be $119.16. A parlay is a single wager whose result is entirely dependent on the result of at least two initial wagers. Each of these underlying wagers must be winners for the parlay to win and the more teams you have on the bet slip, the higher the parlay payout you will receive. Parlay Calculator Our parlay calculator will combine up to 12 games and calculate your payout based on your bet amount and the odds for each game. Find out how much you'll win on any parlay. What Is A Parlay Bet? Strategy And Parlay Calculator . A parlay is a single sports wager that involves two or more bets combined into one. This can include point spreads, moneylines, totals, futures, or even prop bets, as long as the bets are on different games. A parlay calculator is a betting tool that aids gaming investors find out the odds and results of a parlay bet. A parlay, also known as an accumulator, is 1 bet whose results are usually determined by 2 or even more underlying bets. When successful, it offers greater returns to the investor since it links up many events for a higher payout. To use this calculator, enter a bet amount and the odds on every leg of the parlay, up to 15 legs. For even money, put in 100 or -100. Do not enter anything other than numbers, including the dollar sign. • MLB prop bet total hits allowed for Justin Verlander UNDER 4.5 (-145) • Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins totals OVER 6 goals (-115) In the parlay number cruncher, you would add -200 for Bet 1, -110 for Bet 2, -145 for Bet 3, and -115 for Bet 4. The calculator does not need the 4.5 from the prop or the 6 from the totals bet. Parlay Hedge Calculator. If all this is too much for you, why not do it the easy way with our Parlay Hedge Calculator below. How to use the Hedge Betting Calculator – Enter the stake and payout of the original bet along with the odds of the other side of the bet (your hedge).
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http://www.straffespark.com/oddssystemer/In this video you learn how to create a formula, in Excel, that calculates the amount you have to bet in order to wi... Betting parlays is one of the most popular ways to bet on sports, an approach used by recreational and professional bettors alike. Professional sports bettin... How to Win Sports Betting Parlays (plus, betting parlay tips) is covered in the latest episode of our Sports Betting Tips series for sports bettors from the ... We walk you through a sports betting odds grid so that you can easily read betting odds and quickly calculate the payout associated with the betting line. Le... DDC Video 5 How to bet the parlay How many teams do I bet on in a parlay? How to pick teams to bet on in a parlay These and other questions answered in this ... How do I place a PARLAY bet on BETONLINE?https://justbetonthegame.com Instagram @betonthegameFacebook @justbetonthegameTwitter @betonthegame BOVADA ONLINE SPORTS BETTING 50% MATCH BONUS: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P47962FB/join/?extcmpid=rafcopy$20 FREE PLAY ON DRAFT KINGS: https://www.draftkin... http://bit.ly/1zvFp4s Calculate your accumulator/parlays quickly and easily. Add and remove by simply selecting which odds to include. Ideal for horse racing...
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