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How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know. So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.
THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:
Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...
ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.
Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects. Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all...
Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):
https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
$APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
$CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
$TLRY gets a UK deal
$TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price. THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:
NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.
IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF- do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.
SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.
Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent. Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof:https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know. So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.
THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:
Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...
ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.
Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects. Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all...
Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):
https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
$APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
$CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
$TLRY gets a UK deal
$TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price. THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:
NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.
IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF- do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.
SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.
Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent. Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof:https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
Over the years I have thoroughly enjoyed throwing together playlists for different occasions (making coffee, working out, weddings, seasons, etc.) and thought I'd share! Please let me know your thoughts, favourite mixes, as well as recommendations for future playlists. All feedback is welcome! Hope you enjoy them: That Weekend Feeling Skip to the good bit; weekend grooves to wave away any weekday blues. Awesome Mix: Ultimate Edition (Mixtape) A great hero, named Kevin Bacon, once taught an entire city full of people with sticks up their butts that, dancing, well, is the greatest thing there is. The legend of Footloose comes alive with Awesome Mix: Ultimate Edition - Songs from and inspired by the Guardians of the Galaxy series. Morning Motivation: Steal Some Sunshine Soak up the sun with energetic jams and breezy classics! I'd Drink To That: Party Playlist Mix it up with a party playlist to keep the night buzzing. I'd Sing To That: Carpool Karaoke Pack up and take those pipes on a roadtrip! The catchy. The memorable. Just Jams 🎧 Nothing but jams to fill a pair of headphones or stadium. Brendan's Listen Local Funky & Thumpy! Some of my favourite energetic jams, classics, and BBQ party starters from our local Australian & New Zealand artists. Friday Fire It's Friday! Friends. Family. Fun. Groovin' The Brew Nothing but rockin' party grooves on tap. Diverse Pop Sounds It's pop, but not as you know it. Break Thru Ear Candy. Sunday Sesh Beers & bangers on a weekend! Run To Paradise Set up goals, and knock them down with an energetic running playlist. Summer Daze The heat is on with a playlist of crisp summer tunes. Autumn Mix: Volume 1 A breezy & brilliant playlist for the ever-changing Autumn seasons. Chilled Pop Soft, chilled winter pop songs. Warm Tunes Warm songs of Spring, like a comforting embrace. A Mid-Summer Night's Drink 🍻 Lord, what fun these mortals be! Wind Down 🌚 When the night winds down, so does some great music. 90's Baby! 📼 It is the sound of the roller disco, BMX bike track and arcade! The Hip Hip Hop Only the hippest of the hip. My modern and classic hip hop favourites. Indie Bops: It's ALT Good Get your alternative bounce on. Not Your Final Form: A Workout Playlist All the other licks with the pumped up kicks to keep you going during a workout. My favourites and a few other choice tunes for pushing harder, faster, stronger. Easy On The Ears Easy, Easy, Easybeats. Life Is Good ☀️ Today is gonna be a good day. Dial M For Music Deep, cathartic music. JOY Smile. Vibe Hard Get into the zone, and vibe-out to infectious tunes! Rock & Roll Never Dies Who says rock & roll is dead? Commercial radio? It's always been around; you've just got to roll with it and look harder. Get your kicks! Brainfood Introspective acoustic, calming strings, uplifting anthems, and a touch of nature. Food for the brain, and perfect background noise for studies. Game Night 🎲 For every occasion... casino, tabletop, videogames; a soundtrack to a brilliant game night! Sizzlers: BBQ Playlist 🍔 Fire up the burner and the anthems with a barbeque playlist hotter than the bright ball in the sky. Kickstart My Heart: Classic Rock Radio Rocking all over the world. Rush Hour Grinding Gears. Riff Raff: Party Rock Some rowdy rock to turn up the night. RE : FRESH 🍹 SUPERDOPE. Piña colada's and Caribbean Rum. The Driver There's a voice in my head that drives my heel. Country Road Might as well cruise. Might as well banjo. Born to be Wild Life's an adventure; you can't be tamed. Night Moves: Dancing In The Moonlight Unwind with the moonbeams. Night drives & night lives. Funk Right Off Get Funk'd. Rambling Roses 💐 Beauty and Love are as body and soul. Beauty is the mine, Love is the diamond. Sweat. Reset. Whatever it takes. 'Cause you love the adrenaline in your veins. Power Pop: Marathon Power pop to push and electrify a workout. Cool Beans: Coffee Playlist Recharge with some warm tunes. Kitchen Crooners 🎀 Now we're cooking! Now We're Cooking! Tasty tunes for the Kitchen. Pool Party Dive in to great poolside swing. Inspiration 💡 Takes Flight Reach for the Sky! Going Places Always push forward. First 💍 Songs for special days. DisNeat - Taking The Mickey Nothing but Disney favourites. Road Trip: Spinning Wheels Hear the call for adventure and hit the road. Guilty Pleasures 🍨 You like the Grease soundtrack? Word. Catchy AF POP Pop that bops. Essentials and the catchiest of the catchy. Acoustica Stripped Back. Playlist + Chill Cool off with some chilled beats and sweet acoustic. Making Waves Unwind with breathy, breezy songs perfect for a walk on the beach. The Playlist Of The Decade (New Years Eve) We welcomed 2020 with the ultimate party playlist jam-packed with familiar throwbacks and modern favourites from the 2010's! Good times! Rhythm Heaven Step up and dance. Sax on the Beach 🎷 Gratuitous? Nah! An instrument to elevate a song from good to great! BedroX 🔥 Sparks. Pump It Up: The Playlist of Champions 🏆 Winner winner, chicken dinner. Retro Rewind Twist & shout to killer Jukebox Classics. Classic Se7ens Nothing but 70's favourites. Great Eight's Nothing but 80's Favourites. Noughty & Nice Nothing but great 00's Throwbacks. The Best Playlist Never Heard It's unheard of! Best Songs You Might Have Missed Potentially slipped under the radar. Songs for Soundtracks 🎬 Royale with cheese. The Grand European Playlist About to take off! EPIC 🗡 Fortune & Glory! SUPERHOT VR : ROCK The champ is coming. SUPERHOT VR : HIP-HOP Kings never die. SUPERHOT VR : ACTION John Wick Schtick. Cowboy Bebop : Spike Spiegel Spike Spiegel is an ex-Syndicate goon and a bounty hunter aboard the Bebop. He is proficient in martial arts, zipcraft flying, and gunfights, but he also has comical and aloof sides of his personality. If there's three things he can't stand, it's kids, pets, and women with attitudes. Cowboy Bebop : Faye Valentine Faye Valentine is a coma survivor of over 50 years and she is trying to regain her memory. She got into a lot of debt upon entering this futuristic world, and she had to resort to a life of crime and hustling to survive... that is, until she decided to live on the Bebop and become a bounty hunter. Cowboy Bebop : Jet Black Jet Black is an ex-ISSP Special Forces Officer and the Captain of the Bebop. He is a bounty hunter and is called the "Black Dog" because once he sinks his teeth in he never lets go. Jet enjoys American Jazz music, taking care of Bonsai trees, and has a knack for investigative work. Cowboy Bebop : Radical Edward Edward is a net diver from Earth. Edward is a child prodigy for hacking and has an aptitude for anything mechanical, even though Edward has some eccentricities in other parts of her personality. For instance, Edward speaks in third person and sometimes behaves like a wild animal. At The Movies 🎟 Lights, camera, playlist. James Bond Classics 🍸 A martini, shaken, not stirred. The Word Is Bond 🍸 The world is not enough; but this playlist comes pretty close. Live Love LIVE Blistering live performances. Future Nostalgia Neo-swing, retro swagger; it's future nostalgia. B-Side Yourself Hidden Gems, Deep Cuts & Rarities. Punk'd You're Gonna Go Far, Kid. Building Houses: Hit By Hit Baby let's play house. Far ALT A playlist rocking that weird shit. Stay Home: The Safety Dance Stay safe out there. Day Tripper A playlist for a long drive - a day trip. In Tents Music For Camping. Roots Bluesy classics to strut to. All That Jazz Get jazzy on it. Focus Features Take a breather. Australiana Paradise. Drive Time Coast to coast. Songs for a spin. Stone Cold Classicals It's classically classic. Hall of Fame 💎 Songs for the career climbers and L.A. dreamers. Glitz & glam; all that jazz. This is Halloween Everybody Scream! It's Beginning to Sound A Lot Like Christmas! Christmas Classics. Just For Laughs 🎭 What a Joker! Two Nights In Tao🎙 Karaoke? There's a first time for everything. GAME Take control. Game On : Borderlands Psycho-delic CHOO CHOO THE PAIN TRAIN'S COMIN' Red Dead Redemption II Songs For Bloody Duels, Whiskey-Fueled Gambles, and Rolling Desert Plains. Energy Shot Keep animated with an energetic dose of catchy music! Party Fillers A background mix for any event. The Essential AC/DC AC/DC are an Australian rock band formed in Sydney in 1973 by Scottish-born brothers Malcolm and Angus Young. Although their music has been variously described as hard rock, blues rock, and heavy metal, the band themselves call it simply "rock and roll" The Essential One Republic OneRepublic is an American pop rock band formed in Colorado Springs, Colorado, in 2002. It consists of lead vocalist and multi-instrumentalist Ryan Tedder, guitarist Zach Filkins, guitarist Drew Brown, bassist and cellist Brent Kutzle, drummer Eddie Fisher and keyboardist Brian Willett. The Essential Shinedown Shinedown is an American rock band from Jacksonville, Florida, formed by singer Brent Smith in 2001. Shinedown has sold more than ten million records worldwide, and has had the most number one singles on the Billboard Mainstream Rock charts out of any band, with 16. The Essential Dua Lipa Dua Lipa is an English singer and songwriter. After working as a model, she signed with Warner Music Group in 2015 and released her self-titled debut album in 2017. The success of the singles helped her self-titled album become one of the most-streamed albums on Spotify. The Essential Preatures The Preatures are an Australian band from Sydney. The band was formed in 2010 and features Isabella 'Izzi' Manfredi on vocals/keyboards, Jack Moffitt (guitar), Thomas Champion (bass) and Luke Davison (drums). The band won the Vanda & Young Songwriting Competition with their song Is This How You Feel. The Essential Maroon 5 Maroon 5 is an American pop rock band from Los Angeles, California. It currently consists of lead vocalist Adam Levine, keyboardist and rhythm guitarist Jesse Carmichael, lead guitarist James Valentine, drummer Matt Flynn, keyboardist PJ Morton and multi-instrumentalist Sam Farrar. The Essential INXS INXS were an Australian rock band, formed in 1977 in Sydney. INXS was fronted by Hutchence, whose magnetic stage presence made him the focal point of the band. Initially known for their new wave/pop style, the band later developed a harder pub rock style that included funk and dance elements. The Essential Beatles The Beatles were an English rock band formed in Liverpool in 1960. The group, whose best-known line-up comprised John Lennon, Paul McCartney, George Harrison and Ringo Starr, are regarded as the most influential band of all time. The Beatles are the best-selling music act of all time. The Essential Volbeat Volbeat are a Danish rock band formed in Copenhagen in 2001. They play a fusion of rock and roll, heavy metal and rockabilly. Their current line-up consists of vocalist and guitarist Michael Poulsen, guitarist Rob Caggiano, drummer Jon Larsen and bassist Kaspar Boye Larsen. The Essential Chromeo Chromeo is a Canadian electro-funk duo from Montreal, formed in 2002 by musicians David "Dave 1" Macklovitch and Patrick "P-Thugg" Gemayel. Their sound draws from blue-eyed soul, dance music, rock, synth-pop, disco and funk. As of 2018, the band has released five studio albums. The Essential Queen Queen are a British rock band formed in London in 1970. Their classic line-up was Freddie Mercury (lead vocals, piano), Brian May (guitar, vocals), Roger Taylor (drums, vocals) and John Deacon (bass). With estimated record sales ranging from 170 million to 300 million, they are one of the biggest. The Essential Michael Jackson Michael Joseph Jackson (August 29, 1958 – June 25, 2009) was an American singer, songwriter, and dancer. Dubbed the "King of Pop", he is regarded as one of the most significant cultural figures of the 20th century. The Essential Brian Setzer Brian Robert Setzer (born April 10, 1959) is an American guitarist, singer, and songwriter. He found widespread success in the early 1980s with the 1950s-style rockabilly group Stray Cats, and revitalized his career in the early 1990s with his swing revival band, the Brian Setzer Orchestra. The Essential Florida Georgia Line Florida Georgia Line are an American country music duo consisting of vocalists Tyler Hubbard and Brian Kelley. Their 2012 debut single "Cruise" broke two major sales records: it was downloaded over seven million times, making it the first country song ever to receive the Diamond certification. The Essential KISS Kiss is an American rock band formed in New York City in January 1973 by Paul Stanley, Gene Simmons, Peter Criss, and Ace Frehley. Well known for its members' face paint and stage outfits, the group rose to prominence in the mid-to-late 1970s with its elaborate live performances. The Essential Sheppard Sheppard is an Australian indie pop band from Brisbane, formed in 2009. At the 2014 ARIA's ceremony, they were nominated for Album of the Year, Best Group, Best Independent Release, Best Pop Release, Song of the Year, Producer of the Year, and Best Video. The Essential Matchbox 20 Matchbox Twenty is an American rock band, formed in Orlando, Florida, in 1995. The group currently consists of Rob Thomas (lead vocals, guitar, keyboards), Brian Yale (bass guitar), Paul Doucette (drums, rhythm guitar, backing vocals), and Kyle Cook (lead guitar, vocals). The Essential Coldplay Coldplay are a British rock band that were formed in London in 1996 consisting of vocalist and pianist Chris Martin, guitarist Jonny Buckland, bassist Guy Berryman, and drummer Will Champion. Coldplay have sold more than 100 million records worldwide, making them one of the world's best-selling. The Essential Daughtry Daughtry is an American rock band formed and fronted by namesake Chris Daughtry, who was a finalist on the fifth season of American Idol. Their self-titled debut album was released in November 2006 and reached number one on the Billboard 200. To date, Daughtry has sold over 9 million albums. The Essential Black Eyed Peas The Black Eyed Peas are an American musical group, consisting of rapperswill.i.am*, apl.de.ap, Taboo, J. Rey Soul and singer Fergie. Originally an alternative hip hop group, they subsequently refashioned themselves as a more marketable pop-rap act and have become best-selling artists.*
Please, whenever possible, link this post to help out your fellow players. This is best with 2 players, if possible, to maximize profits. You'll need an Arcade, here's a list of all of them. I prefer the Eight Bit Arcade because of its location and accessibility to the Garage, as well as the fact that it makes most preps spawn in the same locations for easier completion of preps.
Here's a list if guides that'll help with getting started with the Diamond Casino Heist:
While doing Casino Heist preps, you can make Lester shut up and show the mission objective faster by giving one of your contacts (Mechanic, Assistant, hell even Brucie) a call, as long as you know the contact you call will pick up the phone and not just leave you ringing.
Tip 2:
[Make sure to call Simeon or Martin and request a job before you start a prep, as you cannot request a job while doing Casino Preps] In some missions you are unable to call Lester and call the cops off of you. During these missions, you can get the cops off of you for free by calling Simeon or Martin and request a job. Once you get the job, join it. AS SOON AS YOU JOIN THE JOB, LEAVE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. If you don't quit, you run the risk of the Host starting the job and therefore cancelling the heist prep. Once you leave the job, you'll be back in Freemode with no cops on you, and you'll still have your heist prep equipment.
Note:
There are two Access Points that are required for the way I run the heist, in Aggressive and The Big Con (Gruupe Sechs), being the sewer entrance on the right side wall in the first opening, and the tunnel entrance leading into the center of the track.
Scope out the Casino
Look for Artwork and Gold, as they are the best (unless Diamonds are available in the vault. In that case, Diamonds are the best)
Changing vault contents
If you've completed all three approaches (Silent & Sneaky, Aggressive & The Big Con), you'll have unlocked the ability to cancel the Casino Heist by calling Lester. You can use this to cancel the heist if you get Cash, or any Vault Content item you don't want. If you find the Vault contents and get something you don't want, like Cash, you can call Lester while still in the Casino and cancel the heist. Go back to the Arcade and pay the 25k to start the heist again, and you should have a different item for your Vault Contents. This will essentially allow you to get a second Vault Content item by trading 25k to start the heist a second time with about 8 minutes of finding and hacking / killing the Casino Security guy and going to the Casino. If, once again, you get a Vault Content item you don't want, exit the arcade, call Lester & cancel the heist, enter your Arcade, rinse and repeat.
Personally, I cycle between Aggressive and The Big Con (Gruupe Sechs).
Now, because I prefer doing the heist through the Aggressive and The Big Con (Gruupe Sechs) approaches, I have little to no experience doing the Silent & Sneaky approach, and thus will be basing this post off of my personal experience in the other two approaches. Note I'm not going to go into every single prep mission, mandatory or optional as that would take too much time for me. You can look up the rest of the preps on YouTube or Google. I'm only going over my preferred Gunman, Driver, Hacker, the preps that I prefer to do / prefer not to complete, and how I complete the heist.
Aggressive
Gunman: I prefer Patrick MacReary, 8%. I can't remember the other weapon available, but I know he allows you to choose an LMG with 100 round mags. I prefer to use the LMG. You can unlock by finding him in the back of a police van. Take the van to the objective area by following the yellow marker and you'll unlock him. Driver: I prefer Karim Denz, 5%, which has decent vehicles. I prefer the Sentinel Classic. Hacker: I prefer Paige Harris, 9%, which you can unlock by owning a Terrorbyte (which you can unlock by owning a Nightclub).
The preps I prefer to do are:
Unmarked Weapons, Getaway Vehicles, Hacking Device, Thermal Charges, Vault Explosives (I prefer to use a Stromberg while doing this mission), Reinforced Armor, Vault Keycards, Patrol Routes, Duggan Shipments, Security Intel (unlock by owning a penthouse and completing the penthouse missions), and Security Pass. For the Reinforced Armor, I only do this if I have Gold or Diamonds as it slows you down. I also only do this if I am a low level or if I have low level teammates, because low level = low health. If I have Artwork or Cash I don't do this. As for the Boring Machine prep, you don't need to have the Boring Machine to access the sewer. All you need to do is have took a picture of it and sent it to Lester during the Scope Out prep.
The Big Con
Gunman: I prefer Karl Abolaji, 5%. He has access to the Mini Uzi (I forget the in-game name) and the double barrel shotgun. I prefer the Mini Uzi. *You're going to be mostly going up to people and meleeing them / knocking them out instead of shooting them, unless you get caught, then you'll be shooting them. Driver: I prefer Karim Denz, 5%, which has decent vehicles. I prefer the Sentinel Classic. Hacker: I prefer Paige Harris, 9%, which you can unlock by owning a Terrorbyte (which you can unlock by owning a Nightclub).
The preps I prefer to do are:
Unmarked Weapons, Getaway vehicles, Hacking Device, Entry Disguises (2 preps), Vault Drills, Exit Disguise, Vault Keycards, Patrol Routes, Security Intel, and Security Pass. I don't do Duggan Shipments as usually use my weapon to melee / knock out the security guards at the Casino, and since a melee is a one hit one kill, regardless of level of armor they're wearing, I don't usually do this mission. Completing the Yung Ancestor missions allow you to have the Grotti Furia, a supercar, as an extra getaway vehicle, although it spawns in the parking lot which is surrounded by cops. I would not recommend doing this. Again, 2 players are recommended. Start the Heist, get to the Vault. One of you work on the first main room with the big circle table in the centre while the other one will start hacking whichever doors lead to 2 or 3 Artwork or Gold / Diamond / Cash tables. Always go for the rooms that have more than one cart. Tip: With Gold / Diamonds, you cannot sprint / run, you can however trot. If you go into First Person and tap / press and hold whatever your sprint / run button is, you'll see your character's weapon / screen shake, indicating that you're trotting. Doing this in First Person is actually faster than Third Person.
There are two was I like to lose the cops
1, through the sewer, and 2, by helicopter (Helicopter Route) [Disclaimer: This strategy is not recommended if you're trying to get the Elite Challenge, as this will most likely take more than 15 minutes, or however long the given time is.] Once you are out of the Casino, make it to the road. Drive to the sewer opening by the Casino, and if you don't have a car, just run to said sewer opening.
Note:
If you go back the way you came, or anywhere close to the Casino after you lose the cops, you will gain a wanted level again. Proceed through the tunnel. You'll find a metal gate that you have to pass under, a small vent on the right side, and another vent on the left. You'll come across 2 paths. Go up the metal ramp on the left. Proceed all the way down the tunnel and down the escalators and ramp downwards. Cross diagonally over the 2 train tracks into the next tunnel with a dirt floor. You'll find 2 tunnels, left and right. Take either one. You'll find construction, go straight. After this, you'll see a big room. Go straight, take the immediate right and go up the ramps leading to the opening to the highway. If you dont have a car, get one or two and drive to the Buyer. Links to my other posts, which consist of guides, and other useful things I've found & posted.
From Top Left Ole Mathiesen OM8.35.Q: Received 2013 as a birthday gift from my wife. Perfect Swiss quartz 35mm x 5mm dress watch for me. Pulsar P3 1973: Lucky to grab a good example from Ebay in 2015 at a reasonable price. Fun modern retro. The the LED "dial" is ridiculously legible, the unique hollow bracelet is surprising comfortable and the ferrous magnet in the clasp evokes feelings of James Bond while adjusting the time. G Shock GW-S600: Purchased 2 years ago as a JDM release. Classic square in titanium and carbon fiber makes this a great dumb workout watch. Personal "SKX" custom build: Built the best nh35 diver in could in 2020. Crystal times case, bezel, single domed sapphire, and crown. Komo Dial, Namoki's GS hands and movement, LBCI lumed chapter ring, LBCI lumed sapphire bezel insert and Uncle Seiko razor bracelet. Pressure tested to 200m by my go-to local watch shop. Personal "Explorer" custom build: My latest, just finished. Lucius Atelier 36mm case with nh36 movement from Ebay. Raffle times California dial and pilot hands. Fluco waterproof leather strap. Seiko 17 jewel 7006-8059: $30 fixer upper purchased from Ebay several years ago that I believe is from 1972. Spent the last couple years fixing it up with a new acrylic crystal, Fluco strap, go-to local watch shop light case polish and service. The cushion case looks great at 38mm, its relatively thin at 9mm and is one of my favorites. Personal Seiko "Casino Royale" mod: Built for fun this winter with the kids. Orange lighting filter, electronic double side tape, alcohol to remove the case text and a Blu Shark nato. Would recommend this project to anyone who wants to test out watch mods. Hope you enjoyed the meager collection and good hunting.
The Shortlist As I mentioned on the submissions post, this year we have sorted through and refined the list of intros available for the community to vote on. Last years competition saw over 400 nominations which we feel detered people from voting as going through them all was too big of a project, so this year we have a much more manageable list of 245 intros for you to vote on. Information about how we chose the shortlist can be found in the comments below. I want to thank Brodator, Chainge & SidGarcia for the amazing work they’ve done helping me narrow down the list down to the intros below. Points system This will be the exact same values as the previous couple of years, as follows:
10th 5 points
9th 6 points
8th 7 points
7th 8 points
6th 9 points
5th 10 points
4th 12 points
3rd 14 points
2nd 17 points
1st 20 points
How to vote!
Open the Google Survey and enter your reddit username for validation purposes. (If I see a reddit name I don't recognize, I can look at the account to see if someone made it just to enter more votes.)
If you don't have a reddit account, Enter your IGN. You get your 1 vote, using multiple Reddit alts will result in immediate vote deletion.
Next, you can vote. There will be 3 separate technical "top 10" lists you can fill out. Only filling out one list is required, but I encourage you do all of them!
Your answers must begin with the THREE DIGIT CODE for that intro, not the intro name. You can give the name also but it isn't mandatory and must come second. Your answers themselves must be formatted as either of the following: 001 - Abstraction S3 or simply 001. Unacceptable responses: "Abstraction S3", or even "1". Incorrect formatting will result in that entire list being disqualified.
Submit your response and wait to see how your favourites performed in the upcoming Top 100 video!
I started playing Granblue around the start of the anniversary event this year and have playing the game daily since (Now rank 161) . I've noticed my half elixirs count going lower and lower daily (from 1.8k H. elixirs on May to 500+ H. elixirs as of now), is there any way to farm up half elixirs as I see myself running out of elixirs when the next GW comes. I'm trying to avoid using moons until I absolutely have to, since I'm saving up to spark my moon count is not particularly high either. As of now I do this daily to get Pots
Buy 5 H. Elixirs from Casino
Use twitter to recover both AP/EP
Trade H. Elixirs from treasure shop.
Buy all showdown elixirs whenever possible
Daily AP spending
Clearing all standard magna raids (one and two star)
Do daily Primarch pinion special mission
Clear all Magna 2 impossible raids (except for Shiva and Alexiel)
Clear 4 primarchs, omen and peacemaker wings
As of now, farm Xeno Vohu Manah (Approximately 150 H. Elixirs spent)
The Demon Hunter destroyer - Legend with Secret Stealth Rogue
Introduction
Hey guys. I'm a hardcore paladin main who's hit legend multiple times with off meta pally lists, which I've posted some past guides for. Unfortunately, I've hit a bit of a problem recently - Paladin kind of sucks right now. More so than usual! Pure Paladin is the only viable deck the class has right now, but its lack of card draw makes the losses feel really bad. Around a month ago, after a break from the game, I was looking for some cheapish midrange alternatives when Secret Stealth Rogue caught my eye. An archetype that was briefly explored at the start of the expansion but quickly lost popularity, I somehow became absolutely convinced that I had found the secret dark horse of the expansion. There was one problem though - the number of rogue wins I had at the time was in the single digits. It took a long time to get used to playing rogue, as well as refining the pretty terrible decklist I had started off with, and I spent the entirety of the previous season getting to grips with the deck. After settling on a definitive version at the start of the current season, and over the course of over a hundred games, I have finally reached Legend. The purpose of this post will both be a guide and a hopefully compelling case for you to give this deck a try. Legend proof 1 Legend proof 2 Deck overall stats (from Bronze 10 to Legend, W-L of 76-49, 61% winrate) Deck matchup stats (final version starting from around Diamond 10, W-L of 49-29, 63% winrate)
The Stealth Package Spymistress: A staple of the stealth package, Spymistress is a very generously statted card, able to contest the earlygame against other aggressive decks such as Demon Hunter, and also able to dish out big amounts of damage against enemy heroes for just 1 mana. Knowing when and when not to attack with a stealthed minion is one of the most important things to learn when playing this deck. Keeping the minion stealthed can have many advantages, such as denying enemy plays (Satyr Overseer for example), and keeping an activator for your stealth combo cards. Worgen Infiltrator: Strictly worse than Spymistress, and originally wasn't run in the deck. So why did I decide to include it? First of all, I found that I wasn't activating Greyheart Sage (the best card in the deck) often enough. Secondly, I wasn't getting my 1-drops in my starting hand as much as I'd liked. Still though, I didn't like the idea of running what I thought was a sub-optimal minion. But then, u/FunkiMonkiTwitch came with his Stealth Rogue list, and this card's HSReplay stats on it were surprisingly decent. This is what pushed me to add one copy to the list. Ashtongue Slayer: I originally ran two copies, since on paper this card seems pretty busted, right? Maybe for a pure aggro list, but I soon came to find that not only was I unable to actually use their battlecries very often, but its effect also seemed kind of underwhelming, effectively being "deal 3 damage to face or have your stealthed minion make a very awkward trade, and make the Greyheart Sage in your hand useless". However, the card does work well with Skyvateer, with the attack boost and immunity allowing for some nice trades. In the end, one copy seemed like the best option. Skyvateer: Another staple, it doesn't have the most aggressive statline but this deck seriously needs card draw, and having a card that does both that and has stealth is too good of a deal to pass up on. Greyheart Sage: The best card in the deck, a 3 mana 3/3 that draws 2 cards is just absurd. As mentioned earlier, in many situations you'll probably want to refrain attacking with a stealthed Skyvateer so you can get this card's effect off. Burrowing Scorpid: While this is technically part of the stealth package, it's also just all-around a great card. Its battlecry of dealing the magic 2 damage helps immensely against DH, and its attack stat of 5 damage trades well into many things, most notably Shield of Galakrond and Glaivebound Adept. Cursed Vagrant: Again, technically part of the stealth package, but its real use lies in its potent finishing power. The amount of pressure this card exerts is insane, clearing it doesn't help as it just summons an unstoppable deal 7 damage next turn. Used to run two copies, but as good as the card is, it's just too expensive. Due to the amount of draw in the deck, the likelihood of getting this in the midgame is pretty high anyway.
The Secret Package Blackjack Stunner: A completely nutty card even after the nerf, the tempo swing it provides is insane. Due to the amount of draw in the deck, you will usually have a secret at your disposal. Shadowjeweler Hanar: Still absurdly strong, a useful source of refill and can win games on its own if your opponent can't clear it. Ambush: You should generally treat this card as a 2-drop. A 2 mana 2/3 poisonous is pretty strong, and very necessary too since your only other 2-drop is Skyvateer. Dirty Tricks: An important card source of card draw, but at times you should aim to only play this if absolutely necessary, since keeping a secret in your hand to activate Blackjack Stunner and Shadowjeweler Hanar can be very important.
Notable Misc Shadowstep: Synergizes with various cards in the deck. However, when running two copies it became a dead card more often than I liked. Pharaoh Cat: One of the best 1-drops in the game, it provides a reasonable body and gives you a whole card for just 1 mana. Reborn minions are generally decent, and the card generation is seriously welcomed in this deck. EVIL Miscreant: Interestingly, FunkiMonki's list does not run this card. I can understand why, since it's not the most aggressive resource, but EVIL Miscreant has many uses. Lackeys are just insanely powerful for starters, but they also make for great combo activators, making your Edwin significantly stronger. Both useful against aggro and a great value generator, and all in one package. Hooked Scimitar: Kind of forgot this card existed, I decided to give it a try after seeing FunkiMonki's list and it worked surprisingly well. A very potent source of burst.
Notable Exclusions Blazing Battlemage: Seems like a pretty good inclusion. However, due to the lack of space in the deck, and the decent number of existing 1-drops in the deck already, I ended up leaving it out. Although this card has the extra attack, it is just a horrible topdeck and is only useful if it ends up in your starting hand, which doesn't happen enough unfortunately. Bamboozle: I used to run two copies of this, but not only was its effect often underwhelming, but it was just too reactive in nature. In most cases you should be ahead of your opponent on board, which goes against the point of this card. I was worried that without it, I wouldn't be able to draw secrets reliably enough to activate the Stunner and Hanar, but that ended up not being the case. Akama: This card just isn't good enough. I haven't actually played with the card since I really did not want to craft it due to dust shortages, but I guessed that it wouldn't be much good in the first place since a 3 mana 3/4 with stealth just isn't strong enough, and drawing the prime would be such a rare occurrence due to the aggressive nature of this deck. And turns out, in the current Stealth Rogue list on HSReplay, it's one of the worst cards in the deck. Flik Skyshiv: A solid card, but too slow in this deck, and too reactive. Plus, with two Blackjack Stunners, it's a bit unnecessary too. Could maybe be tech against Glowfly Swarm?
General gameplan Each matchup is played quite differently, so it's hard to generalize this deck's gameplan. One thing is for sure though: this is not pure aggro like Aggro Stealth Rogue, and you should refrain from dumping everything from your hand. In a way, this is a classic Tempo Rogue deck. More detailed gameplans are included in the section below.
Matchups
Good Matchups Demon Hunter: 27-6 This deck completely shreds Demon Hunter. I went 27-6 against them, a winrate of 82%. Your early stealth minions do great with controlling the board, and very often your opponent will think they're facing a Galakrond Rogue that hasn't drawn any of their invokes, which means that they'll face tank A LOT. You can easily take advantage of this, maintain board control and burst them down before they do anything too crazy. The only time you'll lose if they have the absolute nuts opening (something like Battlefiend into Umberwing into Satyr) and you don't have a Backstab or any 1-drops. Sample Win: Here, I start off with a pretty mediocre opening hand. An EVIL Miscreant helps me to stabilize, and I eventually gain board dominance. The DH has then proceeds to face tank like crazy, dropping his health from 23 to 12, which allows me to pull off a surprise lethal. Sample Loss: DH has the nuts opening, but I somehow manage to stabilize, again with the help of EVIL Miscreant. I'm in a good position, threatening lethal with a taunted up Cursed Vagrant, but he freezes it to prevent lethal and kills me next turn due to having Kayn to ignore the taunt.
Hunter: 8-1 A very good matchup, you completely dominate the earlygame and midgame and can usually kill your opponent before they can do crazy stuff with their higher costed stuff. Play should come very naturally - you have more cards to play early on, and you just play them to win the board. Sample Win: Despite a solid opener from my opponent, an EVIL Miscreant allows me to build up a huge board, which gets very sticky later thanks to Hanar shenanigans. Sample Loss: I have a horrible start here, unable to do anything for 6 turns, and my opponent puts me out of my misery with a turn 7 Brann. The downside of Shadowstep is displayed pretty well in this replay.
Paladin: 0-2 Okay, I know what this looks like. But a Pure Paladin that draws the nuts opening is hard to stop. I don't know how this managed to happen twice, but it did. In theory, this should be a great matchup, mostly due to your Blackjack Stunners which completely destroy them. I've played plenty of Pure Paladin, and Galakrond Secret Rogue was always my least favorite matchup. If you don't trust me, here's the replay. Not much I could have done there.
Shaman: 2-1 I ran into three Highlander Shamans. This is a really easy matchup, treat it as a typical control deck, which means applying constant aggression but not overextending. Because of all your draw, you can steadily build up burst in your hand and finish your opponent off before they do anything crazy. Except that in Shaman's case, they don't really have any crazy plays to begin with. The one game I lost was due to some really bad draws.
Priest: 9-4 People love to whine about Priest, and rightly so - Priests are annoying as hell. But annoying doesn't mean good, and playing this deck has helped me realize that. You need to keep in mind that Priest has horrible draw, so probability wise they should not have many clears at their disposal. Sure, there will be some games where they draw all the answers and you can't really do anything the whole game, but most of the time they'll just sputter, cough and die. The key takeaway is: test for their clears, and don't be afraid to go all in. Your Blackjack Stunners are one of your most important cards in this matchup, always keep a secret in hand so you can play them when you need to. Sample Win: In this game, I carefully maintain a steady stream of aggression. My opponent has the occasional clear but I can always reload, while simultaneously building up burst in my hand, eventually leading towards the final attack. Sample Loss: I'm in a pretty comfortable position throughout the game. The first thing to go wrong is my Cursed Vagrant not sticking around due to a discovered Shadow Word: Ruin. Then I get completely destroyed with an Amet + Soul Mirror combo, with both cards being randomly generated. Nasty stuff.
Meh Matchups Druid: 9-7 Not much to say about this matchup. If your opponent draws their ramp stuff, they win. If they don't, you win. Play as aggressively as possible and hope for the best. This does not make for very interesting replays, unfortunately. Sample Win: Here, I decide to shadowstep the Ashtongue Slayer for maximum damage output. I build up a board which manages to clear the enemy's Glowfly Swarm. The stealthed Burrowing Scorpid really comes alive here, which becomes a very annoying threat for my opponent. His Emerald Explorer activates the Ambush, which leads to lethal. Sample Loss: Opponent has double overgrowth, completely steamrolls me. Typical druid highroll stuff.
Mage: 3-6 In theory, a good matchup. Your opponent doesn't have too many good ways of dealing with all your threats. You have plenty of burst to counter Mage's lack of heal, and if you make sure to restrain from throwing everything in and maintain an even stream of aggression, everything should be fine, right? Yeah, no. When you play against Mage, you enter a casino. And casinos tend to be pretty rigged. Your best hope is to cross your fingers and hope RNG doesn't screw you over. Unfortunately, this doesn't happen very often. Sample Loss 1: Probably the biggest robbery of my whole climb. This was not pleasant to go through. The Khartut from Power of Creation was bad enough, but whiffing the burst from my deck even after shadowstepping the Greyheart Sage was enough to force me into a small break from the game. Sample Loss 2: Scratch that, THIS was the biggest robbery. The early box that summoned Khartut Defenders, the Reno, the Conjurers Calling into two taunts, the other Reno, and the Hoggers. I had so much burst in my hand and still somehow lost.
Rogue: 9-9 Galakrond Rogue performs significantly worse without the Coin than with it.. As a result, whoever goes second in this matchup will have the advantage. You should aim to play this matchup fairly aggressively, since Gala Rogue doesn't have too many good early plays. Especially if they don't have the Coin, which can make things very awkward for them. Sample Win: In this game, I just play my cards naturally, gaining a gradual advantage and finishing the opponent off quickly before he could do any of his power plays. Sample Loss: Here, I had gotten off to a strong start, building up an advantage before it came to a screeching halt due to my Cursed Vagrant getting sapped. This wasn't the end of the world, but the Wand into Galakrond was.
Bad Matchups Warlock: 2-3 Quest Warlock feels like a very strong deck to me. It has the tools to fend off aggro and once the quest is completed, which usually happens just before turn 10, it's pretty much game over. Play this one aggressively, since you're aiming to close off the game before quest completion. However, their access to AOEs and heal make things difficult. Sample Win: Here, I barely squeeze out a win after having my board cleared multiple times. Sample Loss: In this game, my opponent is completely unfazed by everything I throw at him. From big stealthed minions to a 14/14 Edwin to a hail mary Deathwing, nothing works.
Warrior: 7-10 This is going to be your worst matchup. Your stealthed minions can get cleared easily by Risky Skippers and Bladestorms, and if they have an Armorsmith at the ready no amount of burst will get through them. Once again, the only time you'll win is if your opponent does not have the answers, so treat it as if they don't and who knows - sometimes you'll get lucky. Your main win condition in this matchup is to build a big Edwin. Usually they don't have a way to clear it, and you just need to be careful of Bladestorm. Sample Win: My opponent doesn't draw any of their weapons and gets destroyed by a huge Edwin. Sample Loss: After barely getting through a wall of taunted up Warmaul Challengers, my board gets wiped by a Risky Skipper and I get finished off shortly afterwards with an inner raged Grommash.
Mulligan
Always keep: Pharaoh Cat, Spymistress, Skyvateer, Greyheart Sage Sometimes keep:
Worgen Infiltrator against aggro. If not against aggro, keep if no other 1-drops.
Backstab against aggro.
Ambush if going second and have a 1-drop and no Skyvateer.
Dirty Tricks if going first and have a 1-drop (will most likely get activated early by Coin).
Hanar if you have a 1-drop and secret against a class that can't clear well (e.g. Mage).
EVIL Miscreant if going second.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading. Despite the occasional bad luck, I've had a blast playing this deck to legend this season. Keep in mind that I've barely been playing Rogue for more than a month and still managed to do pretty well with this deck. In the right hands, this deck has some serious potential to do some damage in the meta. Feel free to leave any questions and criticisms in the comments below, and I hope you'll give this deck a shot.
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